The Ayatollahs who could succeed Iran's Supreme Leader

The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after Israel dropped 30 bombs on his compound, is a political and religious earthquake for Iran.

It leaves a dangerous vacuum that the regime he has dominated since 1989 must now seek to fill quickly to avoid utter chaos.

There is no single obvious successor who has the support of all the disparate elements of Tehran's clergy, military and political leadership. And some of the potential new leaders may also have been killed in the strikes.

Numerous US and Israeli TV networks reported Khamenei was dead, citing Israeli sources. There was no immediate confirmation from the White House or Tehran. 

In recent years, a favorite to succeed the 86-year-old Supreme Leader had been the hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, but he was killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024.

One contender, if he survived the bombardment, is Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, the Ayatollah's second-eldest son. 

However, while Mojtaba is a powerful and hardline figure in the background, he has never held government office.

Experts believe an increasing possibility is a takeover by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - leading to a military rather than clerical form of government.

In recent weeks, the CIA assessed that, if Khamenei was killed in a 'decapitation strike,' he would likely be replaced by ruthlessly hardline figures from the IRGC.

'Iran’s military commanders hold the country’s future in their hands,' according to Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program.

'That imperative could well expand their appetites, and when Khamenei passes from the scene - either as a result of natural causes or decapitation strikes - so too could any effort to sustain the pretense of religious legitimacy in favor of military rule.'

That would mean even more brutal responses to popular uprisings amid US entreaties for the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

It would also continue to frustrate US attempts to get Iran to denuclearize.

Alternatively, if it doesn't lurch even more into repression, the regime could appoint a figure who can deal with the United States, in the same way Delcy Rodríguez took over as acting president in Venezuela after the capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro last month.

That could be Ali Larijani, chair of the Supreme National Security Commission who, in recent weeks, Khamenei had given increasing power to instead of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Larijani has been described as Khamenei's 'eminence grise' and is a former IRGC officer, and former speaker of the Parliament. 

In preparation for potential US and Israeli attacks, Khamenei also reportedly named to top officials three clerics as potential successors, but their identities have remained secret.

Although he has effectively been running the country, Larijani, a philosophy professor and trained mathematician who wears business suits, is not thought to be among them.

Another possibility for the role of interlocutor with the US, is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Parliament speaker, who is close to Mojtaba Khamenei and hardliners in the IRGC. 

According to Article 111 of the Iranian constitution, a three-member council consisting of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council, would take over temporarily in the wake of Khamenei's demise.

The next Supreme Leader would then be chosen by the 88-seat Assembly of Experts.

Its members are elected every eight years with candidates having been vetted by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council.

Half of the Guardian Council was appointed by Khamenei.

Any debate about who the successor should be would be held behind closed doors.

Possibilities for the secret three recommendations by Khamenei include Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who leads Iran's seminaries and is also on the Guardian Council.

Others are Ayatollah Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who leads the judiciary, and Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi, a senior adviser to Khamenei.

Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, who is on the Assembly of Experts, and Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, who leads Friday prayers in the city of Qom, are also in the frame.

'The promotion of one of Khamenei’s favored apparatchiks would perpetuate the current balance of power, essentially leading to "Khamenei-ism without Khamenei,"' according to Maloney.

Satellite imagery showed one of the first strikes in the US and Israeli bombardment hit Khamenei's compound.

He had not been seen for days beforehand and it wasn't clear if he was there, although one Trump administration insider said they had 'exquisite' intelligence on the Supreme Leader.

Israeli media reported that he was there underground but not in one of the deepest bunkers that could not be reached by bombs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed Khamenei, and President Pezeshkian, were alive 'as far as I know.'

Other reports indicated Iran's Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, and IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, were killed.

President Trump has advocated for a leadership change in Iran, but he has not indicated who should run the country instead.

In the wake of the attacks being launched he described Tehran as a 'terrorist regime.'

A new Supreme Leader would be only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Khamenei succeeded the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.