Poll finds Reform poised to win Runcorn by-election over Labour

Reform are well-placed to win the looming Runcorn & Helsby by-election despite the party being wracked by infighting, according to a poll.

A survey carried out in the constituency by Lord Ashcroft has found Nigel Farage's outfit ahead of Labour by 40 per cent to 35 per cent.

And the advantage grew to nine points when only those who are 'certain' to vote were included.

Although some of the fieldwork was conducted before the damaging row with Rupert Lowe erupted, the indication will be a relief to Mr Farage. 

The Great Yarmouth MP has now been suspended from the party over alleged 'behavioural problems', which he furiously denies saying he has been ousted for criticising Mr Farage.

The Reform leader has also been struggling to manage the fallout from his ally Donald Trump's Oval Office bust-up with Volodymyr Zelensky, and imposition of trade tariffs.  

Sitting Runcorn MP Mike Amesbury has announced he will quit the Commons 'at the earliest opportunity' after punching a constituent.

The date has yet to be set, although it is widely expected to coincide with local elections at the beginning of May. 

Amesbury pleaded guilty in January to assaulting constituent Paul Fellows, 45, after a row in the street in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of October 26. 

The ex-Labour politician been given a 10-week prison term, which was reduced to a suspended sentence after an appeal, leaving him at risk of being ejected from Parliament through the recall process.

He won his seat with a majority of 14,696 over Reform last July.  He has been an independent since his arrest last year.

The poll findings from Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman, represent a more than 20 per cent swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.

Mr Farage's party have surged in the national polls since then, with some showing them in an outright lead.  

Lord Ashcroft said Reform appeared to be in 'pole position' in Runcorn, but stressed there is 'time for Labour to close the gap if they can persuade enough of their unhappy 2024 supporters to turn out and vote'.

:: Lord Ashcroft Polls questions 702 adults in Runcorn & Helsby by phone between March 3 and 12. Results have been weighted to represent the constituency population.