What Does Avatar: Fire And Ash's Box Office Mean For Avatar 4?
by Ryan Scott · /FilmDirector James Cameron's much-anticipated "Avatar: Fire and Ash" is finally here, and, as expected, it dominated the global box office on opening weekend. The third entry in Cameron's "Avatar" saga opened to $345 million worldwide, including a slightly lower-than-expected $88 million in the U.S. For those who are eager to return to Pandora for more adventures, the question now must be asked: Are these numbers good enough to justify "Avatar 4," both for Cameron and Disney? In short, it's complicated.
"Avatar: The Way of Water" opened to $134.1 million domestically on its way to $2.34 billion worldwide. It's the third-biggest movie of all-time trailing only "Avengers: Endgame" ($2.79 billion) and the original "Avatar" ($2.92 billion). Both of the previous "Avatar" movies made the vast majority — more than 70% — of their money overseas, so that domestic number is only a small part of the equation, even though $88 million is quite a bit lower than expected.
Looking at the bigger picture, "The Way of Water" opened to $441 million globally. Without breaking it down country-by-country or anything like that, "Fire and Ash" opened about 22% below its predecessor. "Way of Water" made about 15% less than "Avatar" globally in its original run. What we're seeing, at least in the early going, is a decline in interest from installment to installment.
That becomes incredibly important because "Fire and Ash" has a budget in the $400 million range, making it one of the most expensive movies ever made. As such, it needs to make all-time big money to justify its existence.
James Cameron isn't fully committed to Avatar 4 yet
To be clear, at this rate, "Fire and Ash" is on pace to make around $1.8 billion worldwide when all's said and done, assuming that 22% decline holds for the duration of its run. Even if it were to collapse, we'd still be looking at over/under $1.3 billion worldwide, right in line with "Star Wars: The Last Jedi." Thus, it's on pace to turn a profit, and it's unquestionably going to be a huge hit. But it gets trickier if Disney and Cameron have to assume that downward trend will continue with "Avatar 4."
"This can be the last one. There's only one [unanswered question] in the story," Cameron recently remarked in an interview with The Hollywood Reporter. "We may find that the release of 'Avatar 3' proves how diminished the cinematic experience is these days, or we may find it proves the case that it's as strong as it ever was — but only for certain types of films. It's a coin toss right now. We won't know until the middle of January."
So, we'll have to see where things are in the middle of January. That said, Cameron has already been greasing the wheels, preparing us for the idea that "Avatar 4" might not happen if the financials don't justify it. He's already committed to wrapping the "Avatar" franchise up with a book if need be. Cameron is aware that there is a steep hill to climb, even by this property's wildly high standards. As such, he's not fully committed to "Avatar 4" and "Avatar 5" just yet, nor is Disney for that matter. In the short term, though, this opening is undoubtedly encouraging.
Could Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 be a risk for Disney?
"Fire and Ash" had the second-biggest global opening of 2025 overall trailing only Disney's massive animated hit "Zootopia 2." Few franchises can justify that kind of global interest. The real problem is the sheer cost of making an "Avatar" movie.
Cameron has positioned "Avatar 4" and "Avatar 5" as a connected story, so Disney would have to commit to making both. That would mean something like an $800 million production budget for the pair, as these movies certainly aren't going to get cheaper to make (unless Cameron can somehow find some major cost-cutting along the way). He's not one for compromise, and he doesn't work cheap, historically. With (relatively) reduced audience interest, such an investment could, odd as it sounds, be seen as risky.
The other major factor is that Cameron has several non-"Avatar" movies he wants to make, including his film adaptation of "Ghost of Hiroshima." In that same THR interview, the director admitted he's "at a bit of a crossroads." As he noted:
"Do I want ['Fire and Ash'] to be a wild success — which almost compels me to continue and make two more 'Avatar' movies? Or do I want it to fail just enough that I can justify doing something else?"
In the short term, "Fire and Ash" can be viewed as a success, but it's not a big enough one to suggest that "Avatar 4" and "Avatar 5" are guaranteed slam dunks. Disney is highly invested in the franchise, which has a presence in its theme parks and more. A continuation is more likely than not, but, for the first time, it might not be a blank check prospect. Instead, it would have to be a more calculated venture.
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" is in theaters now.