European Spy Chiefs Warn Russia Could Launch Attack on NATO

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European intelligence officials have warned that Russia could test NATO’s resolve within months rather than years, although security chiefs in the Baltic states have urged caution and said they have seen no signs of an imminent attack.

The warnings follow comments by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who told parliament that intelligence assessments indicated Russia could launch drone or missile attacks against NATO territory in the coming months.

Tusk said Moscow could seek to demonstrate that Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which commits members to collective defence, was “more theoretical than practical”. The warnings have also received support from French President Emmanuel Macron, who described Tusk’s assessment as credible and well founded.

The concerns come as the UN General Assembly meets in New York and Russia and Ukraine continue intense aerial attacks. Ukraine launched a large-scale drone assault against Moscow and other Russian regions on Sunday, while Russia continues its missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian targets.

Czech intelligence chief warns of possible NATO incursion

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), told The Guardian that Russia could potentially attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia.

He said such an operation could involve increased drone activity, a limited incursion, false-flag provocations or a large-scale influence campaign.

Koudelka said such a scenario could emerge in “months, not years”, while stressing that many people were working to prevent it from happening.

The comments form part of a series of interviews The Guardian conducted with European intelligence chiefs about the potential threat from Moscow.

Baltic states urge caution

Security officials in the three Baltic states, which border Russia, have taken a more cautious view of the prospect of an invasion or major escalation.

Normunds Mežviets, director of Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD), said officials had seen no indications of an imminent attack.

He nevertheless acknowledged signs that Moscow was preparing for more decisive action in Europe. He said it remained unclear whether those preparations reflected concrete operational plans or a broader attempt to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies.

The Baltic position reflects concerns that Russia’s military remains heavily committed to the war in Ukraine and that excessive public discussion of an imminent invasion could contribute to anxiety and economic disruption.

Estonia calls for calm

Jonatan Vseviov, Estonia’s secretary-general at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also criticised what he described as a panicked social-media discussion about a possible Russian attack.

He said that if there were genuine grounds for concern, the authorities would inform the public, while urging people in the meantime to remain calm and continue supporting Ukraine.

Mežviets said it was nevertheless positive that Western European governments now took the Russian threat more seriously.

He noted that Baltic officials had repeatedly warned their western European counterparts about Russia before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when many of those warnings received less attention.

No confirmed evidence of an imminent Russian attack

Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka disclosed specific intelligence showing that Russia has decided to launch an attack against NATO in the coming months.

Their warnings therefore describe possible scenarios rather than a confirmed Russian attack plan.

The Kremlin has rejected suggestions that Russia intends to attack NATO. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said claims of a planned Russian attack had no connection with reality or with the intentions of the Russian Federation.

The warnings come against a backdrop of growing military incidents involving NATO territory. On September 14, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a suspected Russian drone carrying explosives after it entered Lithuanian airspace. NATO and European officials have also reported other drone incursions and alleged Russian hybrid activity across Europe.

The current debate echoes the period before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when US officials repeatedly warned that Moscow was preparing an attack while the Kremlin publicly denied that it intended to invade.

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