Israel Election: Exit Polls Put Netanyahu’s Likud First but No Bloc Wins a Majority

27 Oct 2026, 22:11 by Stella Mazonakis · Greek City Times

Exit polls from Israel’s general election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party. However, the bloc of parties opposed to him is narrowly ahead, and neither side is on track for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The figures are projections, not official results.

Israelis voted on Tuesday, 27 October, for the 26th Knesset. It was the first national election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023.

What the exit polls show

The three main broadcasters, Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13, all projected Likud to win 24 to 25 seats. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was second on 21 to 23 seats. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad was projected to win between 12 and 14.

After updates through the night, all three networks put Netanyahu’s bloc on 50 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot on 52, The Times of Israel reported. Arab-led parties were projected to win 18 seats, which would be a record. Channel 13’s first projection had given the opposition bloc 53 seats.

Channel 14, which NBC News described as strongly pro-Netanyahu, was the outlier. It gave the prime minister’s bloc 60 seats and Eisenkot’s 43.

A coalition needs 61 seats to govern. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel. Official results must be published within eight days of the vote, by 4 November.

Record turnout

Turnout was exceptionally high. Israel’s Central Elections Committee said 31.5 per cent of voters had cast ballots by midday, the highest at that hour since 1977. That was the year Likud first won power.

By 8pm, turnout had reached 74.3 per cent, compared with 66 per cent at the same point in 2022. The Times of Israel reported a near-final figure of 77.7 per cent at 10pm, the highest at that hour since 1999.

Rival camps react

Eisenkot said the early figures showed “a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government”. He added: “If these are the final results, this is a victory for Israel’s mainstream Zionist majority.”

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, of Likud, said “the left’s celebration is premature”. He wrote on X: “One thing is reasonably clear: Likud is the biggest party in Israel.”

The campaign was bitter. During the day, Netanyahu sent voters a recorded message accusing the left and Arab parties of trying to “steal the election”, Haaretz reported. The Guardian reported that the election committee rejected the claim and said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering. The committee also refused requests to keep polling stations open past 10pm.

What happens next

The result points to weeks of coalition negotiations. Once official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will choose a member of the Knesset to try to form a government. This is usually the leader of the largest party, but it can be whoever is considered most likely to succeed. If no one can form a coalition, Israel could face another election.

The Guardian reported that the Arab-led parties could become kingmakers, although both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out governing with them, according to NBC News.

Like all surveys, exit polls can be wrong, and counting is continuing.

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