Aiming to Shock Japan, China Pushes a Wave of Reprisals

Beijing is flexing its military and economic might to show its displeasure with the Japanese leader’s comments about defending Taiwan. But its aggressive approach risks backfiring.

Since the new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggested that her country could intervene militarily if China moved to seize Taiwan, Beijing has warned Chinese tourists to stay away from Japan. It has also sent military ships to patrol disputed waters and has threatened to suspend economic or diplomatic exchanges with Tokyo.

The goal, in such a full-throated response, seems to be to cow Japan into submission and to show off China’s confidence in its superpower status. A post by a blog affiliated with China’s state broadcaster declared that China had defeated Japan in World War II when it was much poorer than today. “Now, we not only have an iron will, but also an iron torrent,” the account said, referring to China’s military buildup.

In a sign that China’s response had triggered serious concern in Tokyo, Japan on Monday dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials and to discuss the tensions. China is Japan’s largest trading partner, as well as one of the biggest sources of tourists to Japan.

But the aggressive approach also risks backfiring — not only in Japan, where China’s response has prompted accusations of bullying, but also in other countries wary of China’s attempts at economic coercion and growing assertiveness on the world stage. A Chinese diplomat in Japan deleted a social media post in which he had called for Ms. Takaichi to be beheaded, after the post provoked widespread criticism.

The flare-up began earlier this month, after Ms. Takaichi was asked in Japan’s Parliament about potential “survival-threatening situations,” which under Japanese law would allow the deployment of military forces. Ms. Takaichi said that an attempt by China to blockade or seize Taiwan could qualify.

Previous Japanese prime ministers had avoided specifying how they would respond if China moved against Taiwan.

Ms. Takaichi later said that her comments did not constitute a change in policy. But her comments provoked a furious response in China, which claims Taiwan, a self-governed democracy, as its territory. China’s Foreign Ministry demanded that Ms. Takaichi retract her remarks and cited Japan’s history of invading China.

In recent days, Beijing has also warned Chinese students and tourists against going to Japan, citing unspecified safety risks. On Sunday, China’s Coast Guard said that some of its ships were patrolling the waters of islands that Japan controls but China claims.

The reprisals continued Monday, as China’s Foreign Ministry announced that China’s premier, Li Qiang, would not meet with Ms. Takaichi at a Group of 20 summit later this week. And the Chinese release dates for two Japanese films have been postponed.

In a torrent of editorials, Chinese state media outlets have said it was crucial for China to adopt a maximalist stance for deterrence purposes. They accused Ms. Takaichi of trying to remilitarize Japanese society, which since the end of World War II has had a pacifist constitution.

Some hawkish analysts within China were calling for an even stronger response, including halting exports of rare earths to Japan and banning the import of Japanese agricultural and seafood products.

Public opinion in Japan appears divided. A poll published by Kyodo News on Sunday showed that 49 percent of respondents said they would support Japan intervening militarily over Taiwan, and 42 percent expressed opposition.

Madoka Fukuda, a professor of China studies at Hosei University in Tokyo, said that China may have seen that division and felt more emboldened to push Japan harder.

Weaponizing rare earths, in particular, could prompt concerns far beyond Japan. Beijing’s threats to limit such exports, during its trade negotiations with the United States and Europe, have prompted many countries to try and limit their dependence on China.

One prominent nationalist voice in China, Victor Gao, the vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said that a strong response from China was necessary to shock Japanese society into recognizing the danger of its leaders’ moves. And he said China should not worry about how others might perceive the move. “Other countries may decide how to respond, but China needs to stand firm to make sure peace prevails between China and Japan,” he said.

But there are signs that China’s heavy-handed response is provoking a backlash. In Japan, politicians have denounced China’s retaliation as “excessive.”

Minoru Kihara, a top Japanese cabinet official, said Monday that the presence of Chinese ships near the disputed islands was a “violation of international law.”

“This is unacceptable,” Mr. Kihara said.

Siyi Zhao contributed research from Beijing, and Javier C. Hernández and Hisako Ueno contributed reporting from Tokyo.

Related Content