Families and supporters of hostages, some noting the death of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, demonstrated in favor of a truce in Tel Aviv, on Thursday.
Credit...Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters

Sinwar Is Dead. Will the Fighting Stop?

The killing of Hamas’s leader may allow Israel to claim victory and agree to a cease-fire, and new Hamas leadership could be more open to compromise. But neither side is likely to immediately change course.

by · NY Times

For more than a year, the fate of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seemed entwined with the fate of the war in Gaza.

Mr. Sinwar orchestrated the Hamas assault on Israel last October that killed up to 1,200 people, captured some 250 hostages and prompted a devastating Israeli retaliation that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and laid waste to much of the Gaza Strip.

He was considered the driving force behind Hamas’s refusal to surrender, even as Israel’s airstrikes and ground invasion devastated the territory and displaced most of its population. And his survival made it impossible for Israel to declare victory — living proof that Hamas, though decimated, remained undefeated.

Now, after Mr. Sinwar’s killing, a route toward some kind of truce in Gaza seems slightly more navigable, since it gives both Israel and Hamas a pretext to soften their stance, according to Israeli and Palestinian analysts. But major obstacles remain — and any solution in Gaza will have only a limited impact on the broader conflict between Israel and Hamas’s regional allies, including Hezbollah.

Negotiations for a cease-fire and a deal to release the hostages stalled partly because Mr. Sinwar held out for a permanent agreement allowing Hamas to retain power in a postwar Gaza. His maximalist stance was incompatible with that of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who sought only a temporary truce that would allow Israel to return to battle within weeks in order to prevent Hamas’s long-term survival.

After Mr. Sinwar’s death, Hamas’s remaining leadership, demoralized and afraid, might agree to make compromises that Mr. Sinwar could not, analysts said.

In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu could now make the argument that Hamas has been defeated without the need for further war.

“If Netanyahu has a victory picture under his belt, he can be a bit more forthcoming because he is in a much more prestigious position,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “The question is,” Mr. Rabinovich added, “Does Netanyahu rise to the occasion, or does he not?”

Still, any change may not be immediate. Hamas is a disciplined organization that has survived the deaths of many previous leaders, and its core beliefs remain the same regardless of who is in charge. And Mr. Netanyahu must still weigh a renewed push for a hostage deal against the priorities of his allies in government, who want him to continue the war.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right minister who has previously threatened to resign from government if the war ends prematurely, said in a statement: “It is time to increase the military pressure and step on the neck of the terrorist organization, until its complete defeat.”

In response, Mr. Netanyahu took an ambiguous stance, releasing competing statements that suggested he was weighing both options. After speaking with President Biden, his office released a statement that acknowledged “an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages.”

But in an earlier video statement, Mr. Netanyahu appeared to side with his coalition partners, warning Israelis of tough challenges ahead and pledging to continue to pursue Hamas’s remaining leadership.

“Today evil suffered a severe blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “Together we shall fight,” he added, “and, with God’s help, together we shall prevail.”

The route that Hamas might take in the wake of Mr. Sinwar’s death is similarly ambiguous, analysts said.

Fuad Khuffash, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas, said that Mr. Sinwar’s death would deal the group a crushing blow but would not necessarily change its main negotiating positions.

Hamas is “a group built on individuals. If you lose someone of Sinwar’s stature, it’s not always easy to find someone quickly with the same strength,” said Mr. Khuffash. But, he added, “Hamas will continue according to the same principles — if they don’t stiffen their position. Whoever replaces this leader will continue his ideological line.”

For example, Hamas’s remaining leadership is still unlikely to withdraw its demand for a permanent truce or to accept permanent Israeli occupation of parts of Gaza, according to Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research group in Ramallah, West Bank.

But Mr. Dalalsha said Hamas’s new leadership might be more willing than Mr. Sinwar to hand over power to a technocratic Palestinian government, in order to ensure the group can survive at least in some form in Gaza. It could also show more flexibility in the negotiations over the hostages, perhaps agreeing to exchange more hostages for fewer Palestinian prisoners.

And it might also tolerate a temporary Israeli presence in Gaza as long as Israel nominally promised to withdraw permanently in the future, Mr. Dalalsha said.

“You could find a weakened, more pragmatic leadership in Hamas that would make some tactical compromises, though not on the strategic issues,” Mr. Dalalsha said.

“They won’t say: ‘Yes, we’ll do whatever you want, Mr. Netanyahu,’” Mr. Dalalsha said. “But for the sake of their own physical survival, they may make more compromises than the man who initiated the whole war.”

But whatever the response from both Hamas and Mr. Netanyahu, their actions in Gaza will still leave the broader battle between Israel and Hamas’s regional allies unresolved.

Ending the war in Gaza would not immediately contain Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where an Israeli ground invasion is ongoing, or its conflict with Iran.

Aaron Boxerman and Carol Sutherland contributed reporting.

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