Trump’s Decision on Patriot Missiles Gives Ukraine Cautious Optimism

American fatigue with the war and the fickleness of the Trump administration remain concerns for Ukraine’s leaders.

President Trump’s change of heart on Monday, announcing that the United States would help arm Ukraine with additional Patriot missile systems, a move that would aid that country’s beleaguered air defense forces, was greeted with only cautious optimism by military analysts and officers in Kyiv because of previous seesaws in U.S. policy.

American fatigue with the war and the fickleness of the Trump administration remain a concern for Ukraine’s leaders. The country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is seeking to reshape his government, and, hours before Mr. Trump’s announcement, pointed to bolstering domestic weapons production as a priority for a new prime minister.

“Because Trump is in the mood today, he may not be tomorrow,” Anatoly Khrapchynsky, a Ukrainian aviation expert and former air force officer, said in an interview. “Production must be localized in Ukraine, underground.”

Ukraine’s domestic industry now produces about 40 percent of the weaponry used on the battlefield and in air defense systems, but it must still rely on American and European weaponry in the foreseeable future.

In a nightly video address to Ukrainians, Mr. Zelensky thanked the United States as well as the European nations that committed to financing the Patriot transfers to Ukraine.

“I am grateful to our team, I am grateful to the United States, and I am grateful to Germany and Norway for preparing a new decision on Patriots,” Mr. Zelensky said. Working together, he added, “we can achieve a great deal for the sake of security.”

Bulking up on Patriots would have ripple effects beyond the guarding specific sites. Using them to protecting airfields, for example, would allow Ukraine greater freedom to put its American F-16 and French Mirage fighter jets to use near the front line and in an air defense role.

The signal of continuing support could also shift Russia’s calculous on the Trump administration-brokered cease-fire talks that Ukrainians had written off as a failure before Monday’s announcement.

“Today’s announcement is President Trump’s strongest move toward peace in Ukraine yet,” Mykola Murskyj, director of advocacy at the Razom center in Kyiv, a think tank, said in a statement. “It will save countless Ukrainian lives.”

Russia has been advancing in bloody but slow-moving offensives in eastern Ukraine, and pounding cities and other targets throughout the country. Those involve missiles, against which Patriots can effective, but also drones, fired by the hundreds in volleys once or twice a week.

In a recent, typical large-scale aerial barrage on July 4, Russia fired 539 exploding drones and decoys and 11 missiles. Ukraine jammed or shot down 475 drones but only two missiles.

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

• To Understand Russia, Visit Dubai: You can learn a lot about Russia by coming to Dubai, which hasn’t joined the West’s sanctions against Russia and has replaced London and Switzerland as a refuge of choice for Moscow’s wealthy.
• Cooking for the Front Line: A chef appeared on TV before joining the army when Russia invaded in 2022. Now he makes his borscht for Ukrainian troops instead of cooking show judges.
• Sanctions for Russia?: Flattery and pressure — coupled with Trump’s growing dissatisfaction with Putin — have helped build momentum for new economic punishments.
• Putin, Undeterred: The Russian leader is brushing aside Trump’s professed disappointment in him and is pushing ahead in Ukraine with renewed intensity, analysts and people close to the Kremlin said.
• ‘Widespread’ Rights Violations: In symbolic rulings by the European Court of Human Rights, Moscow was again blamed for the downing of Flight MH17 in 2014 and for an array of war-related human rights violations, including the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Reemergence of Land Mines: Five countries plan to revive the use of the weapon prohibited by treaty for more than a quarter of a century, hoping to strengthen their defenses against any Russian attack.

How We Verify Our Reporting

• Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details.
• We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts.

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