A man flies a kite as storm clouds approach from the west above the San Francisco skyline as seen from Robert W. Crown Memorial State Beach in Alameda, Calif., on Saturday, Feb. 14, 2026. The arriving storm is expected to drop 2-4 inches of rain. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

First of several storms arrives in Bay Area, starting off rainy week

A storm is also descending on Lake Tahoe, where meteorologists are expecting several feet of snow in the coming days

by · The Mercury News

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Clouds darkened across the Bay Area Sunday as the first of three back-to-back rain storms gathered over the region, kicking off what is forecast to be a week of rain that could last through next Sunday.

The rainfall was forecast to intensify in the late afternoon Sunday and into the night as the first storm arrived from the Gulf of Alaska, said Roger Gass, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Precipitation is expected to continue throughout the day Monday, with the majority of rainfall confined to the southern regions of the Bay Area, before subsequent storms continue the rainfall throughout the week.

“Through the day (Monday), south of the Golden Gate, it’ll be on and off, but you have a chance to rain all day,” said NWS meteorologist Dylan Flynn. “That doesn’t really start to break up until Monday night, when we start to kind of get our first break of not much rain, maybe some very, very light rain as we transition from the first system into the second system that’ll get here on Tuesday.”

As of Sunday afternoon, the first Bay Area storm was forecast to bring about 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region, with some higher elevation areas such as the Santa Cruz Mountains expected to receive upwards of 4 inches, Gass said. San Jose, Concord and San Francisco will see between 1½ and 2 inches of precipitation. Oakland will see up to 1¾ to 2¾ inches.

The system will also bring high temperatures in the mid-50s Monday. As the week goes on, temperatures will cool as a colder mass of air arrives in the region, bringing temperatures down to the high 40s to low 50s on Tuesday through Thursday.

The heaviest rainfall in the first system was projected to come through the region over Sunday night into Monday, Gass added. Rainfall will calm overnight from Monday to Tuesday before the second storm is forecast to arrive in the North Bay Tuesday morning then descend into the rest of the region by midday, Flynn said. The first system is expected to bring about 50% more precipitation through the region than the second.

“But that’s not the whole story,” Flynn added. “It’s not just amount of rain. The thing about the second system is that it’s after the cold front comes through, so the winds are going to be coming from a different direction and a little bit stronger as well.”

The second storm also brings a chance of thunderstorms and hail, as well as a dusting of snow across the mountains in the Santa Cruz range and in the East Bay region, which does not happen every year, Flynn added. The winds are forecast to range from 35 to 45 miles per hour, with higher elevations potentially seeing speeds up to 55 miles per hour, Gass said.

Precipitation will calm Wednesday before a third rain system arrives early Thursday and stays through Friday, but it is looking “more run of the mill,” Flynn said. Rain totals are looking to be less than an inch, with less wind but accumulating cold.

“It’s going to feel really cold, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, kind of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen this year,” Flynn said. “Typically when we get these really cold outbreaks, it’s clear skies, but this is different because there’s going to be a little bit of rain falling at times, there’s going to be wind, so it’s just going to feel pretty nasty if you’re outside, especially in the morning on those days.”

The storms are not expected to bring any major flooding because they will bring more intermittent rain as opposed to continuous precipitation, Gass said, adding that drivers should remain cautious of any flooded roadways or downed power lines or trees — and “turn around, don’t drown.”

“As we always say, if there’s water covering the roadway, you don’t know how deep it is or if the roads underneath it have been washed out,” Gass said. “That is one of the leading causes of deaths in the United States.”

Between the snow, wind, potential of minor flooding — plus minor high tide flooding and high surf along the coast — the Bay Area is “pretty much knocking off our bingo card for all the possible hazards we can get here in the Bay Area,” Flynn said, adding that none of them are expected to have major impacts.

Inland, the NWS issued a winter storm warning lasting from Sunday night through Wednesday night for the greater Lake Tahoe area, with forecasts expecting snowfall between two and three feet in the Tahoe Basin and between three and five feet at elevations above 7,000 feet, according to the warning. Winds may reach 35 to 45 miles per hour, with gusts on the Sierra ridge up to 100 miles per hour.

“Travel could be very difficult to impossible with periods of whiteout conditions. Very strong winds could cause damage to trees and power lines,” the NWS said. “If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5-1-1.”

The Lake Tahoe precipitation was expected to begin Sunday night, with a chance of rain and snow in the evening turning to a forecast of heavy snow in the early morning hours of Monday, according to a forecast from the NWS Reno Office. Snowfall is projected to be around 4 inches, with between 2 to 6 inches expected above 7,000 feet. Temperatures will dip to between 22 and 32 degrees.

The storm is forecast to bring heavy snow Monday and Tuesday, with 3 to 7 inches projected on Monday, according to the forecast. Snow chances remain through at least Friday.

The NWS also issued an avalanche watch lasting until Monday morning due to the storm, according to the alert. From Monday evening to Tuesday night or Wednesday, the backcountry was expected to see high avalanche danger.

“A powerful storm with rapidly accumulating snowfall and strong winds may cause widespread avalanche activity in the mountains,” NWS said. “Large avalanches capable of burying or injuring people could occur in backcountry areas.”

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