Newcastle Airport's plan to get 2.5 million passengers in three to seven years

Newcastle Airport revealed its goal to double its passenger numbers to 2.5 million in three to seven years, an increase of more than 1.2 million people.

The ambitious target follows a record financial year, with nearly 1.3 million people passing through the airport in 2025-26.

That count eclipsed the previous high, in 2017-18, by 32,000.

While passenger numbers dipped in the previous financial year, in 2025-26 they were up 9.59 per cent or about 113,500 passengers.

Newcastle Airport chief executive Linc Horton said 2025-26 was a model year for growth, with the airport aiming to increase its numbers by at least 10 per cent every year, or roughly 100,000 passengers.

"If I focus on the Hunter and its population, we can map easily routes that would show us getting to 2.5 million, just from the Hunter going outward, " Mr Horton said.

"We think in a normal process, we could probably grow at 100,000 to 150,000 passengers a year through unlocking routes incrementally and building organically on those really strong routes we already have."

"We're looking at somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent growth. Because a big international route like Bali, Fiji, or Auckland drives about 100,000, so one route drives that 100,000."

Much of the growth at the airport in 2025-26 was due to the announcement of three new routes - Bali, Perth and seasonal flights to Hobart - all of which were supported by millions of dollars from a state government grant.

This year, the airport lobbied the NSW government for a further $220 million over five years to unlock six new international routes and add a million new passenger seats.

The Newcastle Herald questioned whether it would be possible to achieve further passenger growth or unlock new routes without government incentives.

"If we couldn't secure new international routes for whatever reason, we are falling back to that organic 0 to 10 per cent growth. It's that 5 to 20 per cent growth that comes through organic growth, plus those new routes," Mr Horton said.

"We've got our planned sustainable growth. If the state government chose to remove its incentive plans, we would find a pathway through that. It will be disappointing to not have the government support, but we could do it."

The organic growth plan included "building out the shoulders" of the airport's current domestic connections by increasing flight frequency and aircraft size, and Mr Horton expected to get to 2.5 million passengers "somewhere between three and seven years".

Beyond that, there are ambitions to cater for up to 5 million passengers by opening up the "untapped inbound market", much of which hinges on the Hunter region becoming a multi-night international tourism destination.

"You look at Adelaide - it has roughly the same sort of catchment, slightly bigger economy, but their airport does 9.5 million passengers," Mr Horton said.

"Gold Coast is a big tourism draw, but it's within an hour of Brisbane, and they do 6.5 million passengers. Half the population, nowhere near the same economic activity. And Sunshine Coast airport does almost 3 million."

The airport's recent annual report listed Fiji, New Zealand, Singapore and the Middle East as its next direct international priorities.

"Over the next five years, we will expand our efforts to further international markets including South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan, India, the USA and Canada," the annual report stated.

The report acknowledged the "competition for aircraft is real", particularly with Western Sydney International Airport (WSI) recently opening.

"[WSI] will delay our growth for a period of time, but only a period of time," Mr Horton said.

The annual report also revealed the airport made $56 million in total revenue in 2025-26, an increase of 20 per cent, with a net profit of $9.7 million, a significant jump from $2.6 million the previous financial year.

The report did not mention the airport's more than $300 million in borrowings. However, the debt was listed in the recent annual reports of the councils.

The airport's total debt liability now stands at $340 million compared to $235 million in the previous financial year - an increase of $105 million in one year - and interest payments jumped more than 50 per cent to $11.78 million a year.

Interest repayments ate up more than 20 per cent of the airport's total revenue, but Mr Horton said he was comfortable with the airport's ability to service the loans.

"The level of debt we have is very sustainable and fits in with classic metrics like loan-to-value and interest-rate cover," he said.

"We have forecast our needs over a long period of time, and that growth and revenue. We've balanced that with what we can afford in that agreement we have with the Commonwealth Bank for that debt."