Osun 2026: GSI Survey Predicts Winner of Governorship Election

• A survey by Geopolitics Survey International polled 2,100 residents across all nine federal constituencies in Osun state
• The GSI findings covered five key questions on local government leadership disputes and voting intentions ahead of the 2026 governorship election
• Respondents cited specific reasons for backing their preferred candidate, including performance in office and labour-related concerns

A poll by the Geopolitics Survey International (GSI) has indicated that incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke holds a commanding lead ahead of the Osun 2026 governorship election.

GSI Programme Officer Adetokun Adeola released the findings in an official statement, saying the survey ran for one month across Osun state's nine federal constituencies, with field workers conducting oral interviews between December 2, 2025, and January 2, 2026.

A total of 2,100 residents were sampled: 200 per federal constituency, plus an additional 300 in the state capital, Osogbo.

According to Osun Spring, of the respondents, 60 percent were women and 40 percent were men. Those under 45 years of age made up 55 percent of participants, with the remainder aged 45 and above.

What Osun residents said about 2026 voting intentions

On the question of who they would support if the governorship election were held immediately, 79% of respondents said they would vote for Adeleke. 15% named the candidate identified as AMBO (Oyebamiji), while 6% chose Najeem Salam.

Respondents who backed Adeleke most frequently cited his performance in office. Those opposed to AMBO pointed to what they described as his anti-labour record, his association with what they called a failed APC administration, and his alleged role in the ongoing dispute over local government leadership in the state.

Osun local government crisis shapes 2026 voter sentiment

The survey also probed public opinion on the wider local government controversy in Osun. Eight in ten respondents said the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) holds a legitimate claim to local government leadership, referencing elections held on February 22, 2025, and saying the APC's tenure expired in October 2025.

The same proportion rejected the suggestion that APC chairmen still have any valid tenure, with many describing the continued occupation of council secretariats as illegal and blaming the police for permitting it.

On the question of blame, 75% pointed to the APC as the cause of the council crisis, while 20% faulted the police. Five percent said the PDP bore some responsibility for not challenging the federal government and the APC more forcefully.

Sixty-five percent of respondents said the paralysis at the local government level would influence how they vote in future Osun elections, while 35% cited other considerations, such as the state government's overall performance.

GSI noted a 3% margin of error in the findings. The statement described this as the tenth survey the organisation has published on Osun affairs since it began operations in the state in early 2024.

What happens if the governorship election is declared inconclusive?

Legit.ng earlier reported that as Osun State moved closer to its 2026 governorship election, questions were mounting about what would happen if the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declares the result inconclusive.

The answer lies in a well-established but often misunderstood framework within Nigeria's electoral law.

Proofreading by Funmilayo Aremu, copy editor at Legit.ng.