Tinubu vs Kwankwaso: How Kano Will Vote in 2027 Emerges

• Kano lawmaker Abdulmumin Jibrin expressed confidence that President Tinubu will beat Kwankwaso in Kano State in 2027
• Jibrin, a former Kwankwaso ally now in the APC, said insiders know the weaknesses of the Kwankwasiyya movement
• The lawmaker argued that Kwankwaso's position as running mate, not presidential candidate, changes the dynamics in Kano

A federal lawmaker from Kano State has predicted that President Bola Tinubu will outperform the state's influential former governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, on his home turf in the 2027 presidential election.

Abdulmumin Jibrin, who represents Kiru/Bebeji Federal Constituency, made the claim during an appearance on Channels Television's Politics Today on Thursday. Jibrin, once a close political ally of Kwankwaso, now sits in Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC) camp and said former insiders like himself understand precisely how Kwankwaso operates.

"He will, because many of us know the dynamics, his strategies, how he operates, the Kwankwasiyya movement, their strengths, their weaknesses; we are all here, and we know how we will be able to deal with that situation," Jibrin said when asked whether Tinubu could win in Kano.

Why Jibrin believes Kwankwaso's influence is limited

Jibrin stopped short of dismissing Kwankwaso as a political force, conceding that the two-term governor remains a serious figure in Kano politics. However, he argued that the 2027 contest is fundamentally different because Kwankwaso is not the one seeking the presidency. In the 2027 race, Kwankwaso is the vice-presidential running mate to former Anambra State governor Peter Obi on the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) ticket.

According to Jibrin, had Kwankwaso been at the top of the ballot himself, the challenge facing the APC in Kano would have been far greater. With him playing a supporting role instead, the lawmaker believes the political calculus shifts in Tinubu's favour.

Kwankwaso ran as the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 general election, while Obi contested under the Labour Party that same year.

Jibrin addresses his break from Kwankwaso

On his move from Kwankwaso's political orbit to working against him, Jibrin said he holds no ill will towards his former patron and acknowledges the role Kwankwaso played in his political career. He insisted, however, that belonging to different parties does not amount to betrayal.

The lawmaker said he would continue to show Kwankwaso personal respect and has no intention of engaging in public attacks against him, describing his shift in political allegiance as a natural consequence of party realities rather than disloyalty.

Tinubu is seeking re-election on the APC platform, while Obi and Kwankwaso are positioned as the main opposition pairing on the NDC ticket for the 2027 general elections.