High-Stakes Trump-Xi Summit: China Market Access, Taiwan and Iran Crisis on Agenda

U.S. President Donald Trump departed for China ahead of a closely watched summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with both governments attempting to stabilize relations amid mounting geopolitical and economic pressure. Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on the evening of May 13 and remain there through May 15.

Before boarding Air Force One, Trump signaled that one of his key demands would be broader access for American companies to the Chinese market. “I will be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic,” he wrote on Truth Social, referring to the large group of American business executives accompanying him on the trip.

The delegation includes some of the most influential figures in U.S. industry and technology, among them Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Meta, Micron, GE Aerospace, Citi and Cargill. Their presence reflects Washington’s effort to secure trade deals and ease tensions in sectors ranging from aviation and semiconductors to agriculture and finance.

One of the most sensitive issues expected to dominate the talks is Taiwan. Trump recently confirmed that he intends to discuss American arms sales to Taiwan directly with Xi, raising concern in Taipei over whether Washington’s long-standing support for the self-governing island could shift. The United States officially recognizes the “One China” policy while simultaneously remaining legally obligated to help Taiwan defend itself, a balancing act often described as “strategic ambiguity.”

Beijing again reiterated its hardline stance ahead of the summit. Zhang Han, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that Taiwan remains “the core of China’s core interests” and warned that Beijing “firmly opposes the United States selling weapons to China’s Taiwan region.” The remarks come months after the Trump administration approved an 11-billion-dollar weapons package for Taiwan, the largest such package ever authorized by Washington.

Taiwan’s importance extends far beyond security. The island remains central to the global semiconductor industry and the development of artificial intelligence, making it strategically vital for both Washington and Beijing. Analysts expect Xi to push Trump toward language more favorable to China’s position, while Trump is expected to seek Chinese help in managing the escalating crisis involving Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The broader geopolitical context surrounding the summit has shifted dramatically since Trump first postponed the trip earlier this year following the outbreak of war involving Iran. Since then, oil prices have surged, global energy markets have tightened, and Trump’s domestic approval ratings have weakened. Analysts increasingly describe the Beijing meeting as less of a breakthrough summit and more of a “risk-management summit” designed to prevent a deeper deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Trade and energy concerns are expected to dominate behind closed doors. China remains heavily dependent on export markets while the United States still relies on Chinese rare earth exports and supply chains despite years of tariff battles and efforts at economic decoupling. Chinese exports to the U.S. have reportedly fallen sharply, but Beijing has compensated through expanded trade with Europe, Africa and Latin America.

Preparatory negotiations already began in South Korea, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Officials described the discussions as groundwork for the leaders’ summit rather than an attempt to secure immediate breakthroughs.

Trump’s approach toward China appears noticeably less confrontational than during his first administration. Experts believe Washington now urgently wants Beijing to use its leverage with Tehran to help calm the Middle East crisis and restore stability to shipping routes in the Gulf. China, however, has shown little enthusiasm for becoming directly involved.

Some analysts argue Beijing currently benefits from Washington’s difficulties. Michael Froman of the Council on Foreign Relations observed that China appears content to let the U.S. remain tied down in another Middle East conflict while preserving its own strategic flexibility. Beijing has also strengthened its energy security in recent years by increasing oil reserves and investing heavily in renewable energy.

At the same time, China has strong reasons to avoid a major global economic downturn. As an export-driven economy already struggling with weaker domestic demand, Beijing cannot afford a prolonged worldwide slowdown caused by war, supply disruptions or renewed tariff escalation.

Europe is also watching the summit nervously. Officials in Brussels fear that any new U.S.-China trade arrangement could leave European industries exposed, especially if Chinese exports shut out of the American market are redirected into Europe at lower prices. Concerns are also growing that Trump could negotiate bilateral rare earth supply guarantees for the United States while leaving Europe outside future arrangements.

Analysts caution that while neither side expects a dramatic reset in relations, both Trump and Xi are under pressure to avoid open confrontation. As one expert noted, Beijing may not need major concessions from Washington as long as the summit ends without another escalation in the already fragile relationship between the two powers.