Bulgaria's Presidential Election: Exit Poll Puts Gyurov Ahead of Yotova by 0.8%

Bulgaria’s presidential election is heading for a runoff between Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov on November 1, with completed parallel vote counts showing a narrow race and turnout of about 22%, according to polling agencies cited by BGNES and NOVA.

The final parallel count by the Market Links Agency put Gyurov and running mate Georgi Kandev in first place with 33.5%, ahead of Yotova and Kiril Valchev at 32.7%. Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin ranked third with 12.4%, followed by Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov with 4.2%, Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva with 3.4%, and Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova with 2.8%. Market Links estimated turnout at 22.1%.

Myara Agency’s count, based on 100% of the sample, put Yotova and Valchev ahead with 35%, followed by Gyurov and Kandev at 31.9%. Kostadinov and Volgin received 12.4%, Vasilev and Manov 4.3%, Mihaylov and Mateeva 3.5%, and Hristanov and Cherkezova 2.2%. Myara reported turnout of 22.2% as of 8 p.m.

Alpha Research also placed Yotova and Valchev first, with 34.6%, while Gyurov and Kandev received 32.7%. Kostadinov and Volgin took 12.6%, Vasilev and Manov 4.1%, Mihaylov and Mateeva 3.8%, and Hristanov and Cherkezova 2.7%.

Earlier estimates showed similarly close competition, although the agencies differed on the size of the gap. Trend’s exit poll gave Yotova and Valchev 36.4%, compared with 32.1% for Gyurov and Kandev. Myara estimated their support at 35.6% and 32.5%, respectively. Both agencies placed Kostadinov and Volgin third, with between 13.5% and 14.1%, and reported turnout of 22.2%.

Initial parallel counts commissioned by NOVA also pointed to a runoff between the Yotova-Valchev and Gyurov-Kandev tickets. With 90% of the sample processed, Trend estimated 36% for Yotova and Valchev and 30.8% for Gyurov and Kandev, while Myara’s count based on 70% of the sample gave them 34% and 31.3%, respectively. Both agencies placed Kostadinov and Volgin third, at between 12.5% and 12.8%. Estimated turnout was 21.9% according to Trend and 20.8% according to Myara.

Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev described election day as calm, saying authorities had not identified serious attempts at vote manipulation or buying. He said more than 17,000 police officers had been deployed to secure over 12,000 polling stations and pledged to maintain heightened vigilance throughout the week before the runoff.

Emil Stoimenov, co-chair of Yotova’s campaign team, called for an intensive campaign during the remaining seven days and urged voters from across the political spectrum to support her. “A full-scale mobilization is underway across the country. We will hold as many meetings as possible and urge people to turn out in large numbers to vote, so that we may fully restore the rule of law and statehood,” he said. Stoimenov declined to say whether the campaign would seek formal endorsements from other political parties, noting that it would first wait for the final parallel-count results.

GERB-SDS lawmaker and former Deputy Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev described the results as a sharp decline in support for Rumen Radev and Progressive Bulgaria. In a Facebook post, he questioned the earlier predictions of a decisive lead for Yotova and the political group backing her. “Where is the overwhelming lead that pollsters predicted for 'Progressive Bulgaria' and Yotova? The big question is: where did those 1.4 million-plus votes go?” Georgiev wrote, calling the outcome a verdict on Radev, his administration, his political faction and his candidate.

Revival leader Kostadinov said his party had improved on its 3.9% result in the presidential election five years ago. He thanked voters who had returned to the party and volunteers who took part in the campaign, while identifying low turnout and distrust of the political elite as its most serious negative features. “The outcome on November 1st will depend to a large extent on the voters of 'Vazrazhdane' as well. Our cause, for a peaceful, free, and independent Bulgaria, is not the cause of a single individual or a single political organization. It is the cause of every free Bulgarian,” he said.

Gyurov, speaking at the headquarters of the initiative committee supporting his candidacy, said the level of support for his ticket gave it a responsibility to continue its campaign. He thanked those who voted for him as well as those who chose other candidates, saying Bulgarians should not divide themselves into opposing camps. He said the country faced a choice between two people and two different paths, and argued that the next president should unite citizens rather than divide them.

Gyurov also invited Yotova to take part in a debate before the runoff, calling for an open discussion of their visions and how they would use presidential powers when Bulgaria faced difficult decisions.

MECH leader and presidential candidate Radostin Vassilev urged his supporters not to vote for Yotova in the runoff, presenting Gyurov as the alternative. Speaking at a post-election briefing, he said voters should follow their conscience but choose between backing Gyurov and staying home. He acknowledged that both options were difficult for his supporters but said he could not accept Yotova winning.

Vassilev said he had not yet decided how he would vote, although he intended to go to the polls to avoid setting a bad example despite his own ticket not advancing. According to the parallel count, Vassilev and running mate Krasimir Manov finished fourth with more than 4% of the vote, which he described as a significant result for an extra-parliamentary party competing against 27 presidential tickets.

Vassilev called the turnout the lowest since Bulgaria’s democratic changes began, interpreting it as evidence of deep public disappointment with the current administration. He predicted that Yotova’s defeat in the runoff would inevitably lead to snap parliamentary elections as early as the spring.

Slavi Vasilev, deputy chair of the Progressive Bulgaria parliamentary group, attributed the low turnout to the fact that the current prime minister was formerly president, arguing that many people believed the country was in safe hands regardless of who occupied the presidential office at Dondukov 2. In a Facebook post, he predicted that Yotova would win the runoff and turnout would rise the following Sunday.

He described the narrow margin between Yotova and Gyurov as a wake-up call, warning that what he called defeatism among the silent majority could undermine Progressive Bulgaria’s position. Slavi Vasilev also accused PP-DB of self-congratulatory rhetoric and claimed that Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski were preparing to support Gyurov in an effort to revive their political fortunes. He said all of them, along with PP and DB, would lose in the runoff.

In the comments below the post, GERB communications representative Nikola Nikolov responded with a countdown: “10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5...” Most other comments were mocking or critical, with some users urging Slavi Vasilev to stop using artificial intelligence for his posts.

The Central Election Commission reported turnout of 16.04% at 4 p.m., compared with 24.12% at the same point in the 2021 presidential election. The country was electing its seventh president, with 6,590,000 eligible voters able to choose from 27 tickets. A total of 46,001 people were eligible to vote for the first time.

Within Bulgaria, 9,373 polling stations were equipped with voting machines. Of these, 2,249 had two machines each, bringing the total number of machines to 11,622.

For voting abroad, authorities established 613 polling stations in 60 countries. Voting machines were available at 242 of them, while 24 had two machines. The United Kingdom had the most polling stations abroad, with 82, followed by Turkey with 78, Germany with 70, Spain with 67 and the United States with 44.

Alexandrina Pendachanska, an opera singer and co-chair of the initiative committee that nominated Gyurov and Kandev, told BNT that the first-round result had been expected. Exit polls put Gyurov at about 32%, roughly three percentage points behind Yotova, although the final outcome remained uncertain pending the official count.

Pendachanska said she was optimistic about the runoff and expected the ticket to attract broader support. She urged voters to reject what she called the “ghosts of communism”, the past and those who looked toward the East, and instead support a Western-oriented ticket advocating a modern Bulgaria within a united Europe.