Dutch Election Shock: Rob Jetten’s D66 Surges as Wilders Faces Major Setback

The Netherlands witnessed a night of political surprises as the parliamentary election produced an unexpectedly close result between two rival forces: the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, and the centrist-liberal Democrats 66 (D66), led by 38-year-old Rob Jetten. With more than 98 percent of votes counted, both parties stood at 26 seats each in the 150-member parliament, separated by just over 2,000 votes. Final results could take several days to confirm.

The Rise of Rob Jetten and D66

Few had anticipated D66’s surge. Polls had projected the party to win around 17 seats, but Jetten’s performance in the final TV debates just days before the vote appeared to sway undecided voters. Wilders had suspended his campaign after a terror threat, leaving Jetten to dominate the media space with his upbeat, forward-looking message. His call for a “constructive coalition” and his slogan “Het kan wel” (“It is possible”) struck a chord with voters tired of political division.

This result marks D66’s strongest performance since its founding in 1966. Addressing supporters in Leiden, Jetten said, “Millions of Dutch people have turned the page of negativity and chosen politics that lets us look forward again.”

Centre-Left Collapse and Timmermans’ Exit

The GreenLeft-Labour (GroenLinks-PvdA) coalition, led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, suffered heavy losses, slipping to fourth place after coming second in 2023. The alliance lost five seats, prompting Timmermans to announce his resignation on election night. “I have not managed to convince people to vote for us, and I take full responsibility,” he said, visibly disappointed.

A Setback for Wilders and the Far Right

For Wilders, the night was far from the triumph he had hoped for. His PVV lost seven seats compared to the previous election and is unlikely to lead the next government. Despite still being among the largest parties, his potential coalition partners have ruled out working with him, making it nearly impossible for him to form a majority. “We had hoped for a different result,” Wilders wrote on X. “We remain combative and still one of the biggest parties.”

While the PVV slipped, other far-right movements gained ground. JA21 expanded from one to eight seats, and Forum for Democracy (FvD) from three to seven, signaling that the nationalist vote remains strong, albeit fragmented. Analysts estimate that nearly a third of former PVV voters shifted to JA21 this time.

What the Result Means for Europe

The outcome could reshape the Netherlands’ stance within the European Union. Outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof, a technocrat without party backing, had a limited presence in Brussels compared to his predecessor Mark Rutte, now NATO Secretary General. If Jetten succeeds in forming a government, his pro-European stance could revive the Netherlands’ influence in EU decision-making.

As a member of the liberal Renew Europe family, Jetten is expected to advocate for greater EU cooperation on climate, defense, and migration, echoing Rutte’s pragmatic leadership style.

The Road to Coalition

Forming a government will be complex. With 76 seats needed for a majority, no bloc comes close without compromise. The centre-right VVD, now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz and projected to win 22 seats, is seen as the kingmaker. Although it lost only two seats, its role will be crucial in determining whether the Netherlands moves toward a centrist coalition or a looser arrangement leaning left or right.

Other parties fared poorly. The conservative NSC and the agrarian BBB suffered major losses, with the NSC disappearing entirely from parliament. Analysts say voters punished them for their role in the previous government, which collapsed in June over disagreements on migration.

In 2023, coalition talks dragged on for six months, and observers warn that similar deadlock could weaken the Netherlands’ position in European negotiations again.

Who Is Rob Jetten?

If he secures the premiership, Jetten would become the youngest prime minister in Dutch history. Once mocked as “Robot Jetten” for his robotic communication style, he has reinvented himself as a charismatic leader. As climate minister under Mark Rutte, he built his image around optimism, renewable energy, housing expansion, and healthcare reform.

His campaign promised to build 10 new towns and accelerate housing construction by cutting red tape, aiming for 100,000 new homes per year. On migration, he proposed allowing asylum applications to be filed outside the EU and increasing investment in integration programs.

Jetten’s personal life also captured attention. Born in the southern province of Brabant, he is due to marry his Argentine fiancé, international field hockey player Nicolás Keenan, next year.

Winners and Losers

The election crowned D66 and its young leader as the night’s biggest winners, marking an unexpected shift in Dutch politics. The VVD’s moderate losses positioned it as a key player for stability, while Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal’s CDA also bounced back with 18 seats by campaigning on “decent politics.”

Among the losers, the left-wing alliance and the Socialist Party both suffered setbacks, questioning the viability of the Dutch left as a political force.

Wilders, despite losing ground, remains a central figure. His party’s fall did not erase his influence; it merely dispersed his base across smaller far-right parties. “We’re only getting started,” he warned after the results.

For now, the Netherlands faces another lengthy coalition process — and an uncertain political future — as the battle between optimism and populism continues.