Pope Francis dies: Who could head the Catholic Church next?

The election of a new pope is steeped in centuries-old Vatican tradition and ceremony. Following the death of a pontiff, the responsibility of choosing his successor falls to the College of Cardinals-specifically, those under the age of 80.

In Short

• Pope Francis dies at 88, ending 12-year transformative papacy
• College of Cardinals to elect new pope in secretive conclave
• Prominent cardinals like Tagle and Parolin emerge as frontrunners

The death of Pope Francis on Monday at the age of 88 has left the Roman Catholic Church at a historic crossroads. As the first Jesuit pope and the first from the Global South, Francis led the Church with a focus on inclusivity, humility, and sweeping reforms. His passing at his residence in Casa Santa Marta, following a period of recovery from double pneumonia, ends a transformative 12-year papacy that influenced more than 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.

The Vatican is now preparing for the solemn rites that follow a pope's death, including a funeral expected within the next week and a nine-day mourning period known as novemdiales. In about two to three weeks, the College of Cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel for the secretive papal conclave, where they will elect the 267th pontiff.

As speculation mounts, several prominent cardinals have emerged as frontrunners to succeed Francis. The next pope will inherit a Church navigating stark contrasts-declining influence in the West, growth in the Global South, and internal debates on doctrine and modernity.

The following is a list of well-known cardinals who could replace Pope Francis to lead the Catholic Church.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Seen as a leading contender, 67-year-old Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is currently the betting favourite with odds of 3:1. A trusted figure in Pope Francis's inner circle, Tagle has held influential roles, including at the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples. He now serves as the pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation of the Dicastery for Evangelisation.

Known for his gentle demeanour and progressive outlook, Tagle has spoken out against the Church's historically harsh language toward gay people, divorced Catholics, and unwed mothers. His election would mark a historic first for Asia and reflect the Church's growing demographic centre in the Philippines and wider Southeast Asia.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

As the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013, Cardinal Pietro Parolin is among the most seasoned candidates. The 70-year-old diplomat from Veneto is considered a moderate and has been deeply involved in Vatican geopolitics, including negotiations with China and countries in the Middle East.

Parolin is widely seen as a continuity candidate-one who may maintain the spirit of Francis's reforms while restoring a sense of institutional order. In a recent interview, he emphasised the need for peace through mutual respect and warned against "unilateral impositions" that trample on people's rights.

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)

At 76, Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana represents both continuity and change. Once the head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, he has been outspoken on issues such as climate change, poverty, and social justice. Turkson's election would make him the first African pope in over 1,500 years, a move many see as long overdue given Catholicism's rapid growth across the African continent.

Turkson's global perspective and longstanding ties to Francis's papacy put him at 5:1 odds. His leadership would be seen as a powerful gesture toward a more globally inclusive Church.

Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary)

For those in the Church seeking a return to traditional doctrine, 72-year-old Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary is a strong contender. With odds currently at 6:1, Erdo is known for his theological conservatism and strict interpretations of canon law, particularly around marriage and the Eucharist.

As a devout Marian and former president of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences, Erdo appeals to conservatives who feel Pope Francis's reforms went too far. However, his past controversial remarks on refugees and migration may complicate his candidacy.

Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy)

Cardinal Angelo Scola, 82, remains a long-standing papal contender. A former Archbishop of Milan and runner-up in the 2013 conclave that elected Francis, Scola is seen as a theological heavyweight and a traditionalist. Though his advanced age may count against him, his experience and scholarship still appeal to certain factions within the Church.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

One of the rising stars in the Catholic hierarchy, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is seen as a Francis-aligned progressive. At 69, he is president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy and was appointed a cardinal in 2019. Zuppi has played key roles in diplomatic missions, including a peace effort in Ukraine and meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden.

He is also known for his inclusive approach to LGBTQ issues, having contributed to a book advocating for better pastoral care for the LGBTQ community. Zuppi's global engagement and pastoral sensitivity could make him a compromise candidate.

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (USA)

A leading voice of conservative dissent, 75-year-old Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke has long opposed Pope Francis's liberal stance on several key issues. A staunch critic of same-sex relationships, abortion, and divorced Catholics receiving communion, Burke is popular among traditionalists but remains divisive within the broader Church.

While he holds little institutional sway in the Vatican, his base of support among the conservative laity and clergy could still play a factor in the conclave's political dynamics.

HOW IS A NEW POPE CHOSEN?

The election of a new pope is steeped in centuries-old Vatican tradition and ceremony. Following the death of a pontiff, the responsibility of choosing his successor falls to the College of Cardinals-specifically, those under the age of 80. These cardinal-electors gather in the Sistine Chapel, where they cast their votes in a series of secret ballots.

To be elected pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority. If no one reaches that threshold, the voting continues in subsequent rounds, often stretching across several days as deliberations unfold behind the chapel's closed doors.

The world outside watches for one of the most iconic signals of papal transition: the smoke rising from the chapel's chimney. If no consensus is reached during a round, the ballots are burned in a way that produces black smoke, signifying that the conclave is ongoing. When a new pope is finally chosen, white smoke appears-an ancient signal that a decision has been made and a new leader of the Catholic Church is about to be revealed.