Monsoon to enter India via Kerala today: Here's what to expect ahead

The southwest monsoon is set to arrive over Kerala today after multiple delays. IMD forecasts heavy rain across southern India, and details what's ahead. Latest forecast here.

In Short

• Southwest monsoon to arrive today in Kerala
• Thunderstorms, strong winds expected in south peninsular India
• Northern India to receive monsoon rains by late June to early July

After days of anticipation and a series of delays, the southwest monsoon is finally set to arrive over Kerala on Thursday, marking the official start of India's all-important rainy season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday, June 3, that conditions have become favourable for the monsoon to advance into parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as more areas of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

The southwest monsoon's arrival over Kerala is one of the most closely watched weather events in the country, as it signals the beginning of one of India's most awaited seasons that supplies nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall.

The IMD will be monitoring the situation in Kerala to officially declare the onset once the three thresholds are met. These thresholds include sustained rainfall across at least 60% of Kerala's designated weather stations, alongside gusty winds and sufficient cloud cover.

While an onset has not been officially declared yet, the IMD has said that southwest monsoon will likely set over Kerala on June 4. The weather agency has also detailed what the days ahead are expected to look like.

HOW WILL THE WEATHER CHANGE WITH MONSOON?

June 4 is expected to bring widespread rainfall across Kerala, with the IMD forecasting isolated heavy to very heavy showers. Similar conditions are likely over parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Lakshadweep.

Along the west coast, coastal Karnataka could also see heavy rain, while thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected across several parts of southern India.

At the same time, unstable weather is likely to affect other parts, with the IMD forecasting the possibility of moderate to severe thunderstorms and strong winds, reaching up to 40-50 kmph in parts of south peninsular India.

By Friday, June 5, rainfall activity will likely gather pace and rainfall activity is expected to remain active across southern India. Very heavy rainfall is likely to continue at isolated locations across the state. Heavy showers are also forecast over coastal and interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Tamil Nadu and parts of Maharashtra.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and strong winds are expected to remain active across several parts of central and northern India.

By June 6 and later, the weekend is expected to bring a broader spread of monsoon-related weather.

Rainfall activity is likely to remain vigorous across southern India while becoming more widespread over the Northeast and the eastern Himalayan region.

Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

Kerala, meanwhile, is expected to continue receiving very heavy rain through much of the week.

WHEN WILL MONSOON REACH NORTH INDIA?

With Kerala set to welcome the monsoon, the next question is when the rains will arrive elsewhere, especially in places that have been eagerly waiting for the monsoon's arrival for weeks, as temperatures have continued to soar.

Under normal conditions, the monsoon advances rapidly along the west coast and across much of the Northeast during June, typically reaching central India, including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, by the middle of the month before pushing further into eastern and northern regions.

Delhi usually receives its first monsoon showers around June 27, while most parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh, are generally covered by the end of June or the first week of July.

If favourable conditions prevail, rains are expected to bless much of the northern regions by the beginning of July.

But, for now, all eyes are on Kerala, as we await the official onset declaration.

Once the monsoon crosses the state's coastline, meteorologists will closely track how quickly it moves northward and whether it maintains the momentum needed to spread seasonal rainfall across the rest of the country.

- Ends