Could cause severe damage: Asteroid cruising toward Earth, Nasa assessing risk

Estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, Asteroid 2024 YR4 grabbed the attention of astronomers when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024.

In Short

• Nasa estimates that asteroid could hit Earth on December 22, 2032
• The European Space Agency is also tracking the asteroid
• An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one per cent chance of hitting Earth, Nasa has said adding that the initial analysis will change over time as more observations are gathered. â€ï

The asteroid was first reported on December 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center, the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements, by the Nasa-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile.

Estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, Asteroid 2024 YR4 grabbed the attention of astronomers when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024. This list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future. â€ï

Nasa estimates that asteroid could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. "Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 per cent," Nasa said in its update.

The European Space Agency, which is also tracking the asteroid, said that an asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region.â€ï

Since early January, astronomers have been carrying out priority follow-up observations using telescopes around the world and using the new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid’s size and trajectory.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale: a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero.

Two UN-mandated groups have been activated, which include the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), for observations.

"Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade out of view from Earth. During this time, ESA will coordinate observations of the asteroid with increasingly powerful telescopes. It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032," the European Space Agency said in a statement.

New observations could result in the reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in.â€ï