Gold, silver prices to stay volatile. Should you buy or avoid?

Gold is expected to trade between Rs 144,000 and Rs 154,000 per 10 gm, while silver could move in the Rs 215,000 to Rs 243,000 per kg range before a breakout or breakdown.

In Short

• Gold and silver prices will remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions
• Safe-haven demand supports gold amid macroeconomic uncertainty
• Silver faces mixed outlook because of industrial demand

Gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty keep markets on edge, even as the broader trend suggests a gradual upside.

On the domestic front, bullion continues to trade within a defined range on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), reflecting a balance between safe-haven demand and macro headwinds.

According to a report prepared by Dr Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, gold is expected to trade between Rs 144,000 and Rs 154,000 per 10 gm, while silver could move in the Rs 215,000 to Rs 243,000 per kg range before a breakout or breakdown.

GOLD PRICES SEE GRADUAL RISE

Escalating tensions in West Asia, particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, have revived safe-haven demand for gold while raising concerns about supply disruptions and energy-driven inflation, the report noted.

At the same time, markets are weighing whether central banks may need to stay hawkish if inflation resurges due to higher energy prices.

Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, said volatility is likely to persist through the year.

“I expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile through the rest of the year, with a modest upward bias as long as macro conditions stay supportive,” he said.

“Gold may continue to benefit from its safe-haven appeal, especially if geopolitical tensions persist or economic growth slows.”

WHY SILVER MAY LAG GOLD

Silver’s outlook remains more mixed due to its industrial exposure. “Silver could see more mixed performance given its role as an industrial metal if high energy prices persist and have a negative impact on global growth,” Maxwell said.

This makes silver more sensitive to economic cycles, even as investment demand provides some support.

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS TRACK?

Investors will need to track multiple moving parts, including interest rates, inflation expectations, central bank policy, US dollar strength and geopolitical developments.

“The key drivers for investors to look out for will be interest rates, inflation expectations, central bank policies, USD strength and geopolitical uncertainty,” Maxwell said.

“If we start to see further interest rate cuts, then this is likely to support precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.”

“A stronger USD could cap gains due to it being more expensive for foreign buyers.”

For Indian investors, MCX prices are also shaped by the rupee-dollar exchange rate and import dynamics. A weaker rupee tends to push domestic bullion prices higher, even if international prices remain stable. Seasonal demand and any changes in import duties can further amplify price movements.

This means domestic gold and silver prices could remain elevated even without a sharp global rally.

SO, BUY, AVOID OR WAIT?

The current environment calls for discipline rather than aggressive positioning.

“For retail investors, it’s vital to maintain a balanced and disciplined approach,” Maxwell said. “Gold and silver can act as a hedge and help portfolio diversification, but they should not dominate allocations.”

“Gradual accumulation rather than all-in investing can help manage volatility and help dollar cost averaging if we see sharp corrections.”

Gold remains the stronger play, supported by safe-haven demand and macro uncertainty. Silver offers potential upside but comes with added risk linked to global growth.

“Staying focused on long-term objectives rather than short-term price swings is key in navigating this uncertain environment,” Maxwell said.

(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)

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