He's weak, Xi's not: Why Trump's China summit has allies on edge

Trump may offer China concessions at the expense of US allies — and to the detriment of his own country's interests.

In Short

• Trump's China stance in second term unsettled India, US allies
• China-US Summit to take place amid geopolitical uncertainties
• The Iran conflict delayed Trump's visit, weakening his bargaining position

India and much of the world will be watching this week’s US-China summit with bated breath. Donald Trump arrives in Beijing on Wednesday for talks that could be as defining as Richard Nixon’s 1972 meeting with Mao Zedong.

But this time, there is concern that Trump may offer China concessions at the expense of US allies — and to the detriment of his own country’s interests.

Since returning to the White House for his second term, Trump has set aside the policy of past US presidents over the past twenty-five years: of containing China and building a deep strategic alliance with India. His policies have only strengthened China and its ally, Pakistan. His steep tariffs last year hurt India and other US allies, such as Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. Meanwhile, China secured concessions after threatening to block the supply of rare earths to America.

Trump has weakened the Quad, the group comprising India, Japan, Australia and the US, formed in 2007 to counter China. Last year, he didn’t attend the Quad Summit in New Delhi, and he has not indicated whether he will attend this year's, to be hosted by Australia.

He has also threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. In his disastrous military campaign, Trump diverted US military assets from Asia to the Gulf, abandoning American allies such as Japan and South Korea, who face a security threat from China.

WEAKENED BY THE IRAN WAR

Trump postponed his trip to China by six weeks because of the Iran conflict. He changed the dates in the hope of ending the war by then and negotiating from what he believed would be a position of strength. But Tehran and Beijing had other ideas. Beijing’s alleged arming of Iran has been a major concern in Washington, and this has helped Tehran prolong the conflict.

China helped negotiate the ceasefire and called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but it never really put pressure on Iran. Last month, a US intelligence report, broadcast on CNN, showed how Iran may have used the ceasefire to replenish some of its weapons systems. Two sources told the broadcaster that Beijing was working to route shipments of shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems.

Beijing has also given Tehran access to its BeiDou satellite navigation system, helping Iranian missiles to find accurate targets. The war also depleted critical US military systems, making it harder for Americans and their allies to fight a war with China or Russia in future, as some of the depleted stock will take years to replace. This has made Trump’s position in any negotiations with Xi Jinping much weaker.

CHINA’S TRAP

It would be unfair to blame Trump for China’s current position entirely. Though Nixon laid the foundation for China’s entry into the global economy, other US presidents, from Jimmy Carter to Bill Clinton, played a larger role in Beijing’s rise by supplying military equipment, transferring technology, and helping China become a global manufacturing hub.

The US helped Beijing to join the World Trade Organisation in 2001, and China never looked back. Within eight years, Beijing became the world’s largest goods exporter. It was the seventh largest in 2000. Over the next two decades, its economy grew 12 times, and foreign exchange reserves increased 16-fold to $2.3 trillion. Last year, it posted a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. The US accuses China of manipulating global norms and engaging in unfair practices.

In his first term, Trump was tough on Beijing, imposing stiff tariffs and restrictions on critical technologies. Biden made these policies even tougher. Trump’s choice of JD Vance and Marco Rubio, two China hawks, suggested he would remain tough on Beijing. One of the first documents Trump signed after his inauguration promised to establish new rules to stop China from exploiting US technology and what it called the country's “crown jewels”.

DOVISH TRUMP

With Xi’s swift retaliation on US tariffs, Trump changed. With Beijing holding vital supplies of critical minerals, Trump was desperate for a deal. Now, he is seen as more dovish on China than most of his administration.

Last autumn, when the Pentagon sent a draft of the National Security Strategy to the President, branding China the top security threat, Trump sent it back for revision, according to the Wall Street Journal. The final version of the strategy only sought to “rebalance America’s economic relationship with China”.

Trump also allowed China access to AI’s advanced H200 chips, reversing years of US policy that denied Beijing such technology on national security grounds. He also called for granting 6,00,000 Chinese student visas, which would have made China the top source of foreign students in the United States, surpassing India. The US intelligence community will not be happy with that prospect, as some of the Chinese students will act as spies.

DANGERS OF A TRUMP DEAL

A weakened Trump, desperate for a deal, may offer Xi something more serious in return for short-term trade concessions, such as China agreeing to buy more soybeans or beef from the US. Such deals would harm not just the US but also its allies.

There are speculations that Trump may dilute the US support for Taiwan. Xi may ask Trump to affirm Washington’s support for peaceful unification or state that the US “is opposed to” Taiwan’s independence. Trump may also agree to reduce US troops in Japan or South Korea. He has already announced pulling out 5,000 American soldiers from Germany, so withdrawing some forces from Asia can’t be ruled out.

China is in dispute with almost all its neighbours, and most depend on US security. Even India, which is not part of the US security umbrella, will be worried. Beijing continues to repeat its claims over Arunachal Pradesh. A more emboldened China after Trump’s visit to Beijing will not be good news for India.

CHINA HAS PROBLEMS TOO

But China has serious economic issues. Its workforce is increasingly trapped in insecure, low-wage employment, a rapidly ageing and shrinking population, and a weak social safety net that encourages people to save for future emergencies rather than spend now.

China’s economic growth is estimated to be just 4.8 per cent this year. Even that is dependent on exports. The average income was just over $500 a month in 2025. A property crash five years ago has left many Chinese with huge loans on apartments they can’t sell. Car sales are also down.

There is also a birth-rate problem. Chinese people are marrying less frequently and having fewer children. The population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, and the fewest babies were born since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Fewer people, of course, means fewer consumers and fewer workers.

Xi has been tightening control over the country since taking office in 2012. Yet he still doesn’t trust his army commanders. He continues to dismiss top generals and party leaders on corruption charges, though this is believed to stem from loyalty concerns. In recent years, he has dismissed some of the generals he himself appointed.

The US economy and its military remain the world leaders, despite recent problems. So, Trump does have some leverage over Xi in this week's negotiations. Will an impulsive, instinctive Trump surrender to a calmer, more disciplined Xi? The world will be anxiously waiting to hear that.

(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the BBC and Associated Press. He is based in London.)

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(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)