Lok Sabha vs Assembly polls: How Delhi's split voting trend started in 1998

Unlike other states, where the same party often dominates both elections, Delhi voters have shown a trend of voting differently in assembly and Lok Sabha polls. This trend has been evident in several elections.

In Short

• Since 1998, Delhi has voted differently in national and Assembly polls
• BJP swept last two Lok Sabha polls, AAP won Assembly elections
• BJP has dominated six of the eight Lok Sabha polls held since 1993

The voting pattern in Delhi has consistently stood out from other states, reflecting a clear distinction between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Unlike other states, where the same party often dominates both elections, Delhi voters have shown a trend of voting differently in assembly and Lok Sabha polls. This trend has been evident in several elections over the past decades.

VOTING TRENDS SINCE 1998

The trend of voting differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Delhi began in 1998. In the Lok Sabha elections that year, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won six of the seven seats, while the Congress managed to secure only one.

However, just months later, in the Assembly elections held in November 1998, the Congress secured a resounding victory, securing 52 seats with a 47.76% vote share. This win marked the beginning of Sheila Dikshit's tenure as Delhi’s longest-serving Chief Minister. The BJP, under Sushma Swaraj's leadership, managed to win only 15 seats with a 34.02% vote share.

BJP'S LOK SABHA POLLS DOMINANCE

Since 1993, Delhi has held eight Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has dominated six of these, while the Congress succeeded twice. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which emerged as a significant force in the 2013 Assembly elections, is yet to make a mark in the Lok Sabha elections. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all seven seats in Delhi, leaving both AAP and Congress without any representation.

CONTRASTING ASSEMBLY RESULTS

In contrast to its Lok Sabha performance, the AAP has dominated the last two Assembly elections, winning 67 of 70 seats in 2015 and 62 seats in 2020. Local issues such as free water, electricity, and Mohalla clinics resonated strongly with Delhi voters, propelling the AAP to power.

Meanwhile, the BJP managed to secure only three seats in 2015 and eight in 2020. The Congress failed to win any seats in both elections, with its vote share declining sharply.

KEY ELECTIONS SINCE 2014

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all seven seats with a 46.6% vote share. The AAP, which had made a strong debut in the Assembly elections earlier, came second in all the constituencies but failed to win any seats, securing 33% of the votes. The Congress finished third, garnering just 15.2%.

Nine months later, in the 2015 Assembly elections, the AAP won a historic 67 out of 70 seats with a 54.34% vote share. The BJP's share dropped to 32.1%, and the Congress received only 9.65% of the vote, failing to win any seats.

The trend was repeated in 2019 and 2020. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all seven seats with a commanding 56.5% vote share. The AAP and Congress received 18.1% and 22.5% of the votes, respectively, but neither won a seat.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the AAP secured 62 seats with 53.57% of the vote, while the BJP won eight seats with 38.51%. Congress's vote share dropped further to 4.26%.

EARLIER TRENDS: 2003 AND 2008

However, Delhi voters bucked the trend in the period between 2003-2009. The Congress, under Sheila Dikshit's leadership, won 47 seats with 48% of the votes in 2003 and 43 seats with a 40.3% share in 2008.

In the corresponding Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and 2009, the Congress also performed strongly. The party won six seats in 2004 with a 54.8% vote share and swept all seven seats in 2009 with 57.11%.

LOOKING AHEAD: 2025 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

The 2025 Assembly elections in Delhi, scheduled for February 5, will once again test this trend. The results will be declared on February 8. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept all seven seats with a 54.3% vote share. The AAP and Congress, contesting jointly, failed to win any seats.

As Delhi heads to the polls, it remains to be seen whether voters will continue to distinguish between national and local elections or if the trend will shift in 2025.