Verdict day for Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry

Votes are being counted across Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry after a high-stakes campaign. The verdict will determine Mamata Banerjee's fourth-term bid, measure Vijay's debut impact, and show whether the BJP and the Left can hold their grounds in Assam and Kerala.

In Short

• Exit polls suggest BJP return in Assam, give edge in Bengal
• Vijay's debut may disrupt DMK vs AIADMK contest
• Will Vijayan's charisma give the LDF a record 3rd term in Kerala?

Will Bengal throw up a surprise or give Mamata Banerjee a fourth straight term? Will Vijay be the king or kingmaker in Tamil Nadu? Can Left defend its last red bastion in Kerala? Will a polarised campaign by BJP strongman Himanta Sarma pay dividends in Assam? All answers will be out today as votes are counted in four states and Puducherry, where the AINRC's N Rangasamy is seeking a fifth term.

Now, if exit poll predictions hold, which has rarely been the case in the last few poll cycles, the BJP is comfortably positioned to secure a third straight term in Assam, and may even end up ahead of the TMC in Bengal. Further, Tamil Nadu is likely to see the return of MK Stalin's DMK, even though Vijay is set to be a factor, most exit polls have projected. Two pollsters have even gone so far as to predict that the Jana Nayagan actor might come close to forming the government. IN Puducherry, exit polls have forecast a comfortable win for the AINRC.

WILL BJP BREACH MAMATA'S BENGAL FORT?

But the biggest suspense remains Bengal, where Mamata faces her most direct challenge yet from the BJP, which has labelled the state its final frontier. In the 2021 elections, the TMC won 215 seats, while the BJP finished a distant second with 77 seats.

The BJP went all out in the elections, which saw the Election Commission (ECI) deploy a record number of 2.4 lakh central forces personnel. The reason? Bengal's bloody history of poll and post-poll violence.

In fact, this issue was highlighted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah in all their over 50 rallies combined. PM Modi positioned the 2026 polls as a battle to replace "bhoy" (fear) with "bharosa" (trust).

The BJP, which deployed all its chief ministers to campaign, also laid emphasis on the lack of development and joblessness in the state after 15 years under Mamata. The party also amplified the issue of 'ghuspaithiyas' or 'Bangladeshi infiltrators', which the BJP claimed was the TMC's vote base.

Yet this election is not only about the BJP vs TMC or development. The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which reduced the electorate by around 12%, has added a bit of unpredictability and spice to the poll battle.

Approximately 90 lakh names were removed before polling. Of these, over 60 lakh were categorised as absentee or deceased, while around 27 lakh cases were under adjudication.

Now, a high number of deletions were from Muslim-dominated districts like Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur, among others. Since minorities have been Mamata's key vote bloc, BJP leaders believe that the deletions would hurt the Trinamool.

But there is another interesting sub-plot to the Bengal elections. That is Bhabanipur, Mamata's constituency and TMC bastion. After losing Nandigram in 2021 to her bete noire Suvendu Adhikari, Mamata returned to the assembly through a by-election in Bhabanipur.

This time, the BJP fielded Suvendu against her once again, turning the Bhabanipur contest into a high-profile rematch.

BJP EYES HAT-TRICK IN ASSAM

Up northwards, Assam witnessed a fierce clash between BJP strongman Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is seeking a second consecutive term, and Congress's Gaurav Gogoi.

Sarma, who has promised an "infiltrator-free" Assam, made 'miyas' or Bengali-speaking Muslims the main target of his attacks. He also emphasised his government's infrastructure push and welfare outreach, while campaigning on the "jati (community), mati (land), bheti (home or foundation)" plank.

On the other hand, the Congress focused its attack on corruption under Sarma and the alleged "misuse" of state machinery for land eviction drives.

Besides, the Congress is banking on social engineering to upset the BJP's applecart. The three Gogois - Gaurav, Akhil Gogoi of the Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the AJP - have come together to woo the Ahom community.

In the outgoing assembly, the BJP has 64 MLAs in the 126-member House, supported by allies AGP (9), UPPL (7) and BPF (3). Despite being a dominant force over the past decade, the BJP has not been able to secure a majority on its own.

WHO WILL BE VIJAY IN TAMIL NADU?

Down South, Tamil Nadu witnessed an election battle of the ages. Always shaped as a two-front contest between the Dravidian parties DMK and the AIADMK, the entry of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has added a new dimension.

The opposition AIADMK, which also included the BJP, is banking on the fact that Tamil Nadu voters have never given consecutive terms to the DMK in the past half-century. Apart from corruption and law-and-order issues, the AIADMK coalition has fervently raised the nepotism issue. The BJP has alleged that the DMK government serves only the Stalin family.

On the other hand, the DMK has relied on its women-centric welfare schemes and framed the polls as an attempt by the BJP, which it called an external force, to impose Hindi and Hindutva narratives.

However, all eyes will be on Vijay, who has sought to carve a distinct political identity of his own in a break from entrenched Dravidian politics. A massive fan base and youth appeal have made Vijay the X-factor in these polls.

However, the journey has not been smooth. The stampede at his rally in Karur, which left over 40 dead, earned him a lot of flak over mismanagement. Will personal charisma and a fan base be enough for Vijay to come to power?

WILL LEFT BE ABLE TO DEFEND LAST RED BASTION?

While all eyes are on 51-year-old Vijay in Tamil Nadu, it is 80-year-old (Pinarayi) Vijayan who holds the key to the Left's fortunes in Kerala. After all, it is only the state left where the Left is in power after no-shows in Bengal and Tripura.

For a state that has alternated between the LDF and the Congress-led UDF, Vijayan's towering personal popularity was arguably the decisive factor behind the Left's historic second consecutive term.

His decisive leadership, be it during the Nipah virus outbreaks, the two devastating floods, and the Covid pandemic, resonated deeply with voters. The Kerala health model also drew international attention.

Where the Left gains an upper hand is its strong cadre base. However, a resurgent Congress-led UDF will not be a pushover this time. The UDF not only swept the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in the state, but the recent local body polls as well. The Congress has also raised the Sabarimala gold theft scandal and allegations of nepotism around Vijayan's family to corner the Left. Will Vijayan's charisma be enough to swing it in favour of the Left?

- Ends