Taliban completes 5 years in power but Afghanistan remains in deep crisis

The Taliban marked five years since returning to power with a victory parade in Kabul. The show of control contrasted with tightening restrictions, economic strain and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

In Short

• Humanitarian crisis deepens with economic isolation and aid cut
• Several countries engage diplomatically, but few recognise Taliban
• Women face severe restrictions in terms of education and work

On August 15, 2021, the United States had a deja vu moment in Afghanistan. American troops were scrambling to leave Kabul while thousands of Afghans who had worked with US forces since the 2001 invasion rushed towards evacuation flights, desperate to escape the advancing Taliban.

That day marked the effective end of the US military presence in Afghanistan as the Taliban returned to power after a two-decade insurgency.

The scenes drew immediate comparisons with Saigon in April 1975, when the last US personnel fled South Vietnam before communist forces captured the city and brought the Vietnam War to an end.

Five years later, Afghanistan once again stands at a crossroads.

5 YEARS ON, A REALITY CHECK?

The Taliban government has gradually pushed its way back into the international conversation, using Afghanistan’s location between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East to build economic and political ties. But for ordinary Afghans, the picture remains far bleaker.

The Taliban marked five years in power on Saturday, projecting an image of control and stability even as aid agencies and rights groups warned that the country remains trapped in a deep humanitarian and economic crisis.

Outside the former US embassy in Kabul, armoured Taliban vehicles rolled past in a parade as fighters carried flags and banners to mark what the government described as a “victory day” over Western forces.

Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani said in a video address that the Taliban’s return to power had been driven by “morale, courage” and “divine assistance”.

But amid the celebrations, he also acknowledged that “issues and problems” remained.

HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS DEEPENS

Those problems are most visible in the lives of women and girls. Since returning to power, the Taliban have imposed sweeping restrictions on education, work and public life.

Around 2.5 million girls have been barred from secondary schools and universities. UN Women data released this week showed that half of Afghan women now leave their homes only once or twice a month.

The restrictions have remained one of the biggest obstacles to wider international recognition of the Taliban government. Russia remains the only country to have formally recognised it.

MORE ENGAGEMENT, LITTLE RECOGNITION

Even without formal recognition, several countries have deepened engagement with Kabul. India, Qatar, China, Iran and a number of Central Asian states have hosted Taliban officials or expanded diplomatic and economic contacts.

The Taliban has increasingly tried to turn Afghanistan’s geography into geopolitical leverage, pitching the country as a trade and connectivity bridge between regions.

That has given Kabul greater diplomatic space than it had in the immediate aftermath of 2021. But the impact of those moves on everyday life has been limited.

HUMANITARIAN CRISIS REFUSES TO EASE

Afghanistan has also been hit by repeated droughts, earthquakes and large-scale deportations of Afghan nationals from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan.

At the same time, international aid budgets have shrunk considerably. The United States, once Afghanistan’s biggest benefactor, has sharply pulled back aid.

More than half of Afghanistan’s population of around 45 million now requires humanitarian assistance, while unemployment has nearly doubled over the past five years.

The strain has been compounded by tensions with Pakistan, with border disruptions affecting Afghanistan’s most important trade route.

ECONOMY STILL CUT OFF FROM THE WORLD

Afghanistan’s economy also remains largely isolated from the global financial system. Imports have increasingly outpaced exports since 2021, while government finances have fallen significantly.

The Taliban’s most recent published budget, for the 2023 fiscal year, stood at around $2.44 billion, which was less than half the roughly $6 billion budget in 2021.

That gap captures the central contradiction of Afghanistan five years after the Taliban takeover.

The government is more secure, more visible internationally and more confident in its dealings with other countries than it was in 2021. But the state it governs remains poorer, more isolated and heavily dependent on humanitarian support.

Five years after the last US troops left Kabul, the Taliban’s grip on political power has only tightened. But rebuilding a battered Afghanistan is a battle that is far from over.

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