DMK to retain Tamil Nadu, say pollsters; Vijay's TVK a big disruptor, one predicts

The DMK-led alliance is set to retain power in Tamil Nadu by a comfortable margin, according to most exit polls released on Wednesday, shrugging off the electoral challenge from the AIADMK-led alliance and actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK). One pollster, however, expects the TVK to produce a major upset.

In Short

• DMK-led alliance set to retain power in Tamil Nadu, say most polls
• AIADMK alliance is likely to win 65 seats, as per poll of polls
• TVK to split Opposition votes, one pollster predicts an upset

The DMK-led alliance is set to retain power in Tamil Nadu by a comfortable margin, according to most exit polls released on Wednesday, shrugging off the electoral challenge from the AIADMK-led alliance and actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK). One pollster, Axis-My India, however, expects the TVK to produce a major upset by winning nearly 100 seats.

P-Marq and Matrize project the DMK alliance winning 122–132 seats, while People's Pulse estimates a range of 125–145 seats. Chanakya Strategies places the tally even higher at 145–160 seats.

Even at the lower end of these projections, the MK Stalin-led alliance appears poised to secure a second consecutive term in the 234-member Assembly. The poll of polls puts the DMK alliance at around 130 seats, well above the halfway mark of 117.

The AIADMK-led front is projected to win between 65 and 110 seats depending on the survey, suggesting some recovery but not enough to close the gap. The poll of polls gives the Edapadi Palaniswamy-led alliance 65 seats.

Note: Exit polls are based on surveys conducted among voters who have exited polling booths after casting their votes. They aim to predict voter mood but can get the forecast wrong.

THE TVK FACTOR

The bigger story is the arrival of Vijay's TVK, which appears to be cutting into traditional vote bases and reshaping the contest in ways that neither major alliance fully anticipated.

Most pollsters have projected 2 to 10 seats for the TVK and a vote share of five to eight per cent, particularly among younger voters. Even at the lower end, that is enough to alter outcomes in tight contests.

TVK's presence appears to have split votes in pockets, especially within the opposition space, turning what was once a straight DMK versus AIADMK fight into a three-cornered contest across several seats.

One pollster has broken sharply from the consensus. Axis My India has predicted a political tsunami, projecting that the TVK could win 98–120 seats with a 35 per cent vote share, potentially nearing the majority mark in the Assembly. It has also found that 77 per cent of respondents backed the TVK, citing a desire to move away from Tamil Nadu’s bipolar political landscape.

WHAT THE NUMBERS REALLY SAY

Setting aside the Axis-My India poll, which is an outlier, the exit polls tell a clear but nuanced story. The DMK still leads. The AIADMK is still in the fight. But the Vijay-led TVK has changed the texture of the contest.

For Stalin, even a narrow win would mean breaking Tamil Nadu's long-standing pattern of alternating governments. For the Opposition, the numbers point to its inability to mount a united fight against the ruling alliance. For Vijay, this election may only be the beginning.

But if Axis-My India's projection holds, Tamil Nadu will witness political history on May 4, the day of counting.

- Ends