BJP edge in Bengal, say 4 exit polls, two predict Mamata Banerjee win

Fifteen years is a long time in holding power in a state. The 2026 election was billed by the BJP as a make-or-break battle. Four exit polls gave the BJP anywhere between 146-175 seats, while two pollsters predicted a return of Mamata Banerjee.

In Short

• Two pollsters predict a decisive win for TMC in Bengal elections
• Four exit polls give the BJP anywhere between 146-175 seats
• Exit polls reflect voter mood but can often be inaccurate

Unpredictable Bengal stayed true to its nature, with exit polls divided over the outcome of the assembly elections. While four exit polls predicted the BJP would breach Mamata Banerjee's Bengal fort, which the party labelled as its final frontier, two pollsters suggested that the TMC would decisively return to power for a consecutive fourth term. Overall, the numbers suggest a close contest.

The four exit polls gave the BJP anywhere between 146-175 seats. On the other hand, two pollsters predicted a return of Mamata Banerjee, giving the TMC 177-205 seats. A party requires 148 seats to form the government.

However, exit poll numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt. In the 2021 assembly elections, most pollsters predicted a photo finish between the TMC and BJP. However, the Mamata Banerjee-led party swept the elections with a commanding 215 seats, far exceeding predictions, while the BJP managed 77 seats, emerging as the principal opposition for the first time.

Exit polls are based on surveys conducted among people who have exited the poll booths after casting their votes. Exit polls aim to predict the mood among the voters, but can get the forecast wrong.

WHAT BENGAL EXIT POLLS PREDICTED

Bengal, which went to the polls in two phases amid unprecedented deployment of central forces, witnessed record-breaking turnout (above 90%). It was billed by the BJP as an indicator of the people wanting poriborton (change) after 15 years of TMC rule.

Four exit polls seem to mirror the BJP's assertion. Matrize predicted that the BJP would win 146-161 of the state's 294 seats, while giving the TMC 125-140 seats. PMarq gave the highest number of seats to the BJP, between 150 and 175. For the TMC, it predicted 118-138 seats.

Another pollster, Chanakya Strategies, also forecast a saffron wave in Bengal for the first time. It gave the BJP 150-160 seats, while predicting 130-140 seats for the Trinamool.

Poll Diary also gave the BJP an edge with 142-171 seats, while predicting 99-127 seats for the TMC.

Two pollsters, on the other hand, forecast a thumping TMC victory. People's Pulse gave the TMC 177-187 seats, while Janmat Polls forecast 195-205 seats.

Only one pollster, JVC, predicted a photo finish, giving the BJP 138-159 seats and the TMC 131-152 seats.

Overall, the scenario suggests that the BJP has an upper hand, but the TMC cannot be dismissed until the votes are counted on May 4.

HOW BJP VS MAMATA PLAYED OUT

After all, 15 years is a long time in holding power in a state. Over the years, since Mamata upstaged the reign of the Left Front in 2011, her welfare schemes continued to shape the electoral discourse.

Across the state, most of the households, especially in rural areas, have been beneficiaries of her monthly assistance scheme for women (Lakshmir Bhandar). A dole of Rs 1,500 for unemployed youth and cycles and smartphones for school students were behind the TMC's domination.

However, this year, the talk of poriborton or change has kept resonating, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah repeatedly targeting Mamata over corruption and infiltration. The repeated references to Bangladeshi 'ghuspaithiyas' or infiltrators helped the BJP shape a narrative in the TMC bastion.

Another factor that could have worked against the TMC is the issue of women's safety. The RG Kar Medical College incident, where a young doctor was brutally raped and murdered in 2024, hurt Mamata's image. The BJP has fielded the victim's mother on the Panihati seat.

Corruption and the absence of industries and other avenues for unemployed youth have also been flagged by the opposition during campaigning.

However, the biggest factor that BJP leaders are counting on is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. It resulted in the deletion and exclusion of 91 lakh names from the voter list, accounting for a 12% decrease in the electorate.

For the TMC, the major headache is the scale of deletions, especially in Muslim-dominated constituencies. Minorities have been the major vote bloc of the TMC.

BJP leaders believe that the deletions would hurt the ruling party and pointed to the 2021 election data. In the 2021 assembly elections, the victory margin was less than 8,000 votes in 57 constituencies. The SIR deletions could alter the equation in several constituencies.

However, the BJP had no answer to the "Mamata vs who" question. Despite 15 years of anti-incumbency, Mamata remains TMC's trump card and enjoys huge popularity among women and minorities. All eyes are now on May 4.

- Ends