Two leaves, two factions: AIADMK battles for survival in Tamil Nadu reset

Separate arrivals by AIADMK MLAs at the new Assembly session underlined the challenge to Edappadi Palaniswami's leadership after another defeat. The unrest has revived talk of a split, with Vijay's TVK poised to gain from any rupture.

In Short

• AIADMK faces leadership crisis after fourth consecutive defeat since 2019
• Palaniswami's outdated narrative and internal rivalries weaken party's appeal
• Alliance with BJP hurt AIADMK's image, aiding DMK's campaign

Optics matter in politics. So when the 47-member AIADMK legislature party arrived for the first session of the new Assembly in separate batches, the division was for all to see. It is pretty obvious that the leadership of party general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami after a fourth successive defeat since 2019 is facing a serious challenge. The opinion within a significant section of the AIADMK is that the buck stops with Palaniswami and he ought to take responsibility and step aside - either as the party general secretary or allow someone else to become the leader of the AIADMK legislature party. If 32 legislators decide to rebel under the leadership of SP Velumani and CV Shanmugam, it will be a hostile political takeover of Brand AIADMK.

Why did the AIADMK which has won seven assembly elections compared to DMK's four, since its formation in 1972, come to such a pass?

Reason number 1 was the lack of a narrative. Even as Vijay positioned the 2026 election as one between him and MK Stalin, Palaniswami struggled to stay relevant. While Vijay promised ''Maatrum'' (change), Palaniswami promised old wine in a new bottle by only talking of what he did as chief minister. While Vijay appealed to gen-Z by speaking to them in their lingo, EPS appealed for their vote by reminding them that as chief minister, he had given them an ''all-pass'' during the Covid year. The desperation in the 'payback time' plea showed.

Reason number 2 was the misplaced priorities of Palaniswami. His team attempted to project EPS as a strongman based on how he had succeeded in neutralising his rivals within the NDA. That included the removal of senior leaders like O Panneerselvam, KA Sengottaiyan, TTV Dhinakaran and VK Sasikala from the AIADMK and K Annamalai from the post of BJP state president. What the team did not realise is that it ended up underlining Palaniswami's insecurity and inability to carry everyone along.

Reason number 3 was the alliance with the BJP that allowed the DMK to spread the narrative that an AIADMK rule would only make Tamil Nadu a slave to Delhi. This attack by Stalin and Udhayanidhi Stalin put EPS on the defensive and the AIADMK supremo spent too much explaining himself on the campaign trail.

Reason number 4 was to see the election from the prism of caste without realising the youth of Tamil Nadu had moved on. Palaniswami thought he would bring in the Gounder vote, Ramadoss the Vanniyar vote and Dhinakaran the Thevar vote. But 2026 was the election where Tamil Nadu voted without thinking about caste and religion. The verdict was a thumbs down to votebank politics.

Reason number 5 was inability to decide how to handle Vijay. Soon after the Karur tragedy, EPS spoke in a pro-Vijay tone. Subsequently, the manner in which 'Jana Nayagan' was blocked led to an impression that Vijay was being put under pressure to do business with the NDA. Unverified reports suggested that the number of seats the TVK asked for to be part of the NDA was way beyond what EPS was willing to concede. It is a decision Palaniswami would have regretted every day since May 4.

Though the NDA tried to make the best of a losing situation with an aggressive campaign by EPS, Annamalai, Anbumani Ramadoss and TTV Dhinakaran, defeat was staring the AIADMK-led alliance in the face much before votes were cast on April 23. Pollsters indulged in narrative-building on social media by trying to make people believe that the AIADMK was in the race and even winning it. On May 4, when the AIADMK finished a poor third, they ended up with egg on their face. AIADMK's ally, the BJP fared worse, winning just one out of the 27 seats it contested, that too by a thin margin of 900-odd votes.

If the loss was bad, what happened subsequent to the defeat is what has led to the knives being out for Palaniswami. While many within the party wanted to support the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and bargain for ministries, EPS seemed open to the idea of a political relationship with the DMK. That was anathema to many within the AIADMK as it meant a dilution of all that MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa stood for. The proposal apparently was that Palaniswami would be CM, with the DMK extending outside support. Finally nothing came of it as the numbers did not add up.

What happens if the AIADMK splits?

The TVK will be the new AIADMK. Already Vijay by making use of the MGR 2.0 mantle has hijacked the brand equity of the AIADMK founder. A split would formalise the end of the DMK-AIADMK duopoly.

The AIADMK has traditionally won with the help of the women vote and the anti-DMK sentiment consolidating in its favour. Both planks were taken away by Vijay in this election. A split would reduce the AIADMK to a party of district-level chieftains, who will have to either make peace with being a junior partner to the TVK or join the DMK like O Panneerselvam.

Should Vijay offer cabinet berths in return for AIADMK support in the event of a split? There will be public opposition to such an idea because Vijay has made the fight against corruption one of his main governance planks and many of the former AIADMK ministers are not squeaky clean. Some of that stain would invariably then, sully Vijay's image and reputation.

In Karnataka on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticised the Congress for dumping the DMK soon after the results were announced, highlighting that the national party was an unreliable ally. Was he testing the waters to see if an olive branch could be extended at a time when Stalin finds himself without any allies? With the TVK aligning itself with the Congress, how the DMK-BJP dynamic plays out will be an interesting political space to watch. But if anything is to come of it, it will need a great deal of verbal gymnastics on both sides given the diametrically opposite views the two parties have on most issues and the acerbic allegations against each other in the past.

Meanwhile, Palaniswami is hanging on, hoping to regain political relevance once the TVK's honeymoon period is over. His colleagues are in favour of appointing a new gardener to tend to its two leaves.

- Ends
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)