Exit polls favour BJP, but Mamata Banerjee's appeal and Bengali identity may tighten race

Even as several exit polls have given the BJP an edge in West Bengal, ground sentiment suggests that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's personal appeal and Bengali identity factor could keep the contest much tighter than projections indicate.

In Short

• 'Bangla Asmita' boosts Mamata Banerjee's appeal despite anti-incumbency
• Muslim-majority areas favour TMC; BJP may gain in Hindu-majority zones
• BJP intensified grassroots efforts in Bengal after 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Despite most pollsters giving the BJP an edge in West Bengal, ground sentiment suggests that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Bengali identity and personal appeal may keep the contest far tighter than projections indicate. The 'Bangla Asmita' factor – rooted in regional pride and cultural identity – appears to continue resonating with voters, potentially limiting the scale of any BJP surge despite 15 years of anti-incumbency against the ruling Trinamool Congress.

Most exit polls project a tight contest with a slight advantage for the BJP, but conversations across constituencies point to a more competitive political landscape. While there is visible dissatisfaction over governance, corruption allegations and local administrative issues, many voters still view Mamata Banerjee as the strongest Bengali voice in national politics, a perception that continues to work in her favour.

The BJP’s push in West Bengal has been building for years. Party leaders intensified organisational efforts soon after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, focusing on booth-level mobilisation and expanding its cadre network.

Momentum appeared to increase after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following the NDA’s Bihar victory in late 2025, invoked the symbolism of the Ganga flowing from Bihar to Bengal – a message interpreted within party circles as a signal to sharpen focus on the state.

Since then, the BJP has aggressively targeted the TMC government on issues of governance, corruption and law and order. Senior leaders expressed confidence during polling, while Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that after the first phase, the BJP could secure as many as 110 of the 152 seats that had voted.

Ground-level conversations suggest that voter sentiment is shaped by both fatigue and caution. Allegations of minority appeasement have emerged as a major issue in several constituencies. Muslim-majority regions are largely expected to consolidate behind the TMC, while the BJP appears to have gained traction in parts of Hindu-majority areas.

Yet unlike the wave of anger seen in 2011, when Mamata Banerjee ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule, the 2026 Assembly election appears more restrained. Many voters seem reluctant to openly criticise the ruling establishment, with some expressing concern about political repercussions in their day-to-day lives.

The BJP has framed the election as a battle against fear and entrenched power structures. But Mamata Banerjee’s enduring popularity and the emotional pull of Bengali identity continue to complicate expectations of a straightforward BJP sweep.

But, if the exit polls hold on May 4 and the BJP manages to form a government in West Bengal, it would mark a historic breakthrough for the party in a state where it has long struggled to gain power. However, the political mood on the ground suggests Mamata Banerjee’s influence could still prevent a decisive one-sided outcome.

Elections 2026 | West Bengal Election | West Bengal Election Constituencies | West Bengal Election Schedule

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