BJP wins 41% of seats, Congress 35% in Rajasthan urban body polls amid CJP activism

The urban local body polls in Rajasthan has seen the BJP, which is in power in the state, gain 5 percentage point more seats while the Congress's tally dropped by 5 percentage points. After delimitation, the number of seats in the municipal bodies increased by 37% since the last election cycle.

In Short

• BJP wards rose 57%, faster than the state's 37% ward expansion
• BJP's ward share rose 5.1 percentage points, while Congress lost 5.4 points
• Congress still gained wards, but its share fell from 41% to 35%

The BJP has won 41% of the wards in Rajasthan's urban local body polls, while the Congress has won 35%. For the BJP, this marks a 5 percentage-point increase from its share in the last cycle of urban local bodies polls, while the Congress has seen its share fall by about 5 percentage points.

What makes the comparison a bit complicated this time is the delimitation process that led to a 37% increase in the number of seats in the municipal bodies in Rajasthan since the last election cycle, held between 2019 and 2021.

Since the last cycle of urban local body polls, held between 2019 and 2021, Rajasthan has added 2,770 wards. The BJP's tally of wards won has risen by 57%, significantly outpacing the 37% expansion in the total number of wards, while the Congress's tally has increased by 19%.

A direct seat-for-seat comparison, however, is complicated because Rajasthan's urban electoral map has expanded significantly since the last cycle, with the number of wards rising by 37%.

The latest data shows the BJP with 4,179 wards and the Congress 3,613, while several parties like the AAP, CPI (M) and Hanuman Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party making good gains.

This was a key test for the BJP given that the agitation against the Centre's UGC Equity Regulations saw participation from groups from Rajasthan and the Cockroach Janta Party's (CJP's) activism in the state. Also, a big chunk of the voters were below the age of 40.

The results for the urban local bodies (ULBs) were declared on September 14. The elections covered 309 municipalities across three main tiers — Municipal Corporations (Nagar Nigam), Municipal Councils (Nagar Parishad), and Municipal Boards/Municipalities (Nagar Palika/Nagar Panchayat).

While a municipal corporation governs a larger city, a municipality or municipal council administers a town.

The previous ULB elections were held in four phases between 2019 and 2021, with elections to different urban local bodies taking place at different points. The voting for the latest election was held on September 9 and 11.

The increase in the number of seats can be used to assess how the two principal parties — the Congress, and the BJP — have performed in Rajasthan's urban politics. Interestingly, at the Assembly level, Rajasthan has traditionally been a swing state.

While the BJP has won 4,179 wards and the Congress 3,613, Independents have won 2,273. The BJP, therefore, accounts for 40.8% of the 10,244 wards, while the Congress accounts for 35.3% and Independents for 22.2%.

The BJP's lead over the Congress stands at 566 wards.

This analysis was filed at 7 pm on September 14, when results for 10 of the 10,244 wards were yet to be declared. The figures and percentages, therefore, reflect the results available at the time of filing and may change marginally once all results are in.

A LOOK AT THE RAW NUMBERS FROM RAJASTHAN LOCAL BODY POLLS

The consolidated figures from the previous urban local body (ULB) cycle, covering the elections held between 2019 and 2021, put the Congress at about 3,042 wards, the BJP at about 2,666 and Independents at about 1,672.

Comparing those figures with the latest results shows a substantially larger increase for the BJP.

The BJP's tally has risen from about 2,666 wards to 4,179 wards, an increase of 56.8%.

The Congress has gone from about 3,042 wards to 3,613, an increase of 18.7%.

Independents have risen from about 1,672 wards to 2,273, an increase of 35.9%.

The smaller parties have also seen significant changes in their raw tallies.

The RLP, led by Nagaur Lok Sabha MP Hanuman Beniwal, has risen from about 14 wards to 63, an increase of 350%. The rise is notable for the RLP, which is a regional party with a strong presence in Rajasthan's Jat-dominated areas, particularly in eastern and western Rajasthan.

The RLP was part of the INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when Beniwal retained the Nagaur seat as the alliance's candidate.

CPI(M) has risen from about eight wards to 38, an increase of 375%. The BSP has fallen from 24 wards to 19, a decline of 20.8%.

These large percentage increases, however, do not account for the overall 37% increase in the total number of wards.

RAW NUMBERS DON'T TELL THE WHOLE STORY

The more meaningful comparison is what happened to each party's share of the total ward pool, because the number of wards itself has increased by 37.1%.

In the previous cycle, the Congress's roughly 3,042 wards represented about 40.7% of the approximately 7,474 wards. The BJP's roughly 2,666 wards represented 35.7%, while Independents accounted for 22.4%.

In the latest 10,244-ward election, the BJP's share has risen to 40.8%, while the Congress's has fallen to 35.3%. The Independent share is broadly unchanged at 22.2%.

In percentage-point terms, therefore, the BJP has gained about 5.1 percentage points of the total ward share.

The Congress has lost about 5.4 percentage points.

The Independents' share has slipped only marginally, by about 0.2 percentage points.

This is important because the BJP's gain cannot simply be explained by Rajasthan having more wards. The party has increased its representation at a substantially faster rate than the overall ward expansion.

The BJP's tally is up 56.8%, against a 37.1% increase in the total number of wards.

The Congress, by comparison, has increased its raw tally by only 18.7%, well below the expansion in the ward pool. That is why its overall share has declined even though the party has more wards in absolute terms than it did in the previous cycle.

WHAT DOES THE BJP GOVERNMENT'S ROLE IN RAJASTHAN TELL US?

The political context is significant here. Rajasthan currently has a BJP government, led by Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, and the party has now emerged as the largest party in the state's urban local bodies in terms of the number of wards it has won.

Ruling parties can have an advantage in local elections through organisational networks, access to the machinery of government, greater political visibility and the ability to campaign around state-level governance and development.

The latest numbers are therefore broadly consistent with the pattern seen across much of India, where the party in power at the state level generally enjoys an advantage in both urban and rural polls.

Municipal elections are shaped by factors that can be very different from Assembly elections. Candidate selection, ward-level organisation, local issues, delimitation, reservation, factional politics and the strength of Independents can all determine outcomes.

The Congress had the larger share of wards in the previous consolidated ULB cycle. Back then, the Congress was in power in Rajasthan, led by CM Ashok Gehlot. The BJP came to power in December 2023 after winning the Assembly polls. In the latest election, that position has effectively reversed. But it has still held on to a number of wards, indicating that its grassroots organisation in the state is intact.

So, while the data cannot establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship between being the ruling party and winning more municipal wards, it does show that the BJP has strengthened its position in Rajasthan's expanded urban electoral landscape, while the Congress's share has fallen substantially. One has to remember that the BJP's loyal voters are supposed to be those in urban areas, which made this a key test against the backdrop of the uproar over the UGC Equity Regulations and the Cockroach Janta Party's activism.

- Ends