India may have 190 nuclear warheads, says FAS report

A US think tank has estimated India's nuclear stockpile at about 190 warheads. The assessment points to further growth as new missile systems move towards deployment.

In Short

• More than 160 warheads are assessed for operational launchers, report says
• Around 30 additional warheads are linked to missiles still under production
• India has modernised air, land and sea-based nuclear delivery systems recently

India is estimated to have around 190 nuclear warheads, including 30 additional warheads for new missiles under production, according to a report by the Federation of American Scientists, a US nonprofit policy think tank. The estimate was made using open sources, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery.

In an article titled 'India's Nuclear Weapons – 2026', FAS Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen said India has more than 160 warheads for operational launchers, with more warheads linked to new missile systems being produced. The report also said India has continued to modernise its nuclear arsenal in recent years.

"Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads," the article said. It added, "We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190. With more weapon systems in development, the country's warhead stockpile will likely increase further."

The report said several new weapon systems have been fielded in recent years, while several more are under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems and sea-based systems. It also noted that as of the beginning of 2026, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated India to have produced about 730 kg, plus or minus about 170 kg, of weapon-grade plutonium.

"Assuming approximately four kilogramme of plutonium per warhead, this would theoretically be sufficient for producing anywhere between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads," the article said. It added that this calculation had limitations because of uncertainties, including the types of warhead designs India has produced. According to the report, India's 1998 nuclear tests reliably validated a fission design, but the country's progress on boosted fission and thermonuclear weapon designs remains uncertain. "Regardless of the warhead designs, it is unlikely that India has used all its plutonium to produce warheads, and it may have kept some in reserve," the author said.

India adopted a no-first-use doctrine after the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998 and continues to follow that policy. "India is committed to maintaining credible minimum deterrence and a posture of 'no first use' of nuclear weapons," the government told Parliament recently. The report said the size of India's nuclear stockpile also depends on the number and types of launchers that can deliver the warheads, noting that it is unlikely India would produce significantly more warheads than those systems can launch.

Overall, the report estimated India's arsenal at about 190 warheads, linked its future growth to new weapon systems under development, and said the final size of the stockpile would depend on both available plutonium and the delivery systems in service.

With PTI Inputs

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