Small is Big as minor political players play hard to get in Tamil Nadu powerplay

Clearly, Results Day was just the interval and the script for the second half of this real-life 'Jana Nayagan' is still being written. On the face of it, the pieces on the Tamil Nadu political chess board aren't moving.

All of us who thought May 4 would mark 'The End' on the political thriller called 'Tamil Nadu', hadn't factored in the daggers-drawn nature of politics. Clearly Results Day was just the interval and the script for the second half of this real-life 'Jana Nayagan' is still being written.

On the face of it, the pieces on the Tamil Nadu political chess board aren't moving.

The single largest party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is stuck at 108 (107, if you consider that Vijay will need to give up either Trichy East or Perambur) - well short of the simple majority mark of 118. Getting support from five MLAs of the Congress has not helped.

The Governor has told Vijay that he needs to see 118 names before he can be invited to take oath as Chief Minister. In the same breath, Lok Bhavan is reported to have expressed displeasure at the arrangements that were started prematurely for the swearing-in ceremony at Nehru stadium in Chennai and also the provision of the Chief Minister's security detail to Vijay even before he became CM-designate.

Behind the scenes, political activity is on at a furious pace, sparked by an error of judgement on the part of the TVK. Apparently going against the advice given by 10-time legislator KA Sengottaiyan, to show only the 108 names of the MLAs-elect of the TVK, to lay claim for invitation as the single largest party, the think-tank decided to add the five names of the Congress legislators as well. That meant Vijay was now claiming to lead a coalition government and, therefore, Governor Rajendra Arlekar was well within his rights to ask for the 118 names.

After all, when M Karunanidhi led a minority government in 2006, the alliance partners gave letters of support to the Governor.

The Governor was obviously fully aware that there was no other party within striking distance of forming the government. So, the contrarian view is that he should give a chance to Vijay as the leader of the single largest party to prove his majority on the floor of the House, because the majority or the lack of it is not a decision to be taken inside Lok Bhavan. After all, how fair is it to keep Tamil Nadu in a limbo and confusion by not honouring the mandate. The Governor can explore other options if the TVK fails to show the numbers.

Even though the BJP, with just one MLA, is not part of the equation at all, the party is being blamed for the Governor's reluctance to swear in Vijay as chief minister. The BJP at the Centre has been accused of misusing the Chennai Lok Bhavan in the past to create obstacles in the way of the Tamil Nadu government. The last Governor, RN Ravi's run-ins with the Stalin regime, a case in point.

Part of the problem politically has also been due to the enthusiasm shown by the Congress to jump the DMK ship to join Vijay. It provided conditional support which specified that the TVK should not take support from any ''communal party''. That essentially meant no member of the NDA could be taken in unless it snapped ties with the BJP. The AIADMK, PMK and AMMK are understood to be reluctant to do so though the lone member of the AMMK has reportedly been reached out to. The Congress presence in a hypothetical TVK-AIADMK arrangement is also not to the AIADMK's liking.

For Vijay, the numbers would be in place only if the CPI, CPM, VCK and IUML – all with 2 MLAs each – extend support to the TVK camp.

The IUML has already refused, stating they won the two seats thanks to the DMK and therefore won't ditch MK Stalin. The problem with regard to the two Left parties and VCK is that unlike the Congress, these parties have criticised Vijay in the run-up to the elections and on the campaign trail. Second, all three are cadre-based outfits and would need the concurrence of the working committee before arriving at a decision. Third, they reportedly want Vijay to commit to a strident anti-BJP stance on policy matters which the TVK is reluctant to give an undertaking on.

But these are reasons given for public consumption. The real reason is that they need an NOC from MK Stalin, which the DMK chief is not keen to give. That is because once the Congress + Left + VCK are in government with the TVK, it would isolate the DMK and give Vijay the reputation of being anti-BJP, a tag the DMK wants exclusively for itself.

Therefore, Stalin would ideally like Vijay to form a government with the AIADMK so that it gives him an opportunity to accuse the TVK of being part of the B-team of the BJP. This, the DMK believes, will get back part of its core vote. But Vijay wants to wait for the Left and VCK to change their minds. Though members of the TVK family have established contact with certain AIADMK leaders at an individual level, it is understood that the AIADMK option is not Plan A for Vijay.

Stalin also knows he cannot stretch this too far. There is a section in the party that believes that if no party can form a government and the President's rule is imposed, Tamil Nadu may have to go to the polls in six months. In such a scenario, the TVK-Congress combined would milk the injustice done to them and end up sweeping the polls.

It is in this context that key players in the two Dravidian majors are exploring forging a working relationship. It is a proposal both Stalin and Tuticorin MP Kanimozhi are reportedly not enthusiastic about. Those backing the idea are talking from the experience of what MG Ramachandran did to the DMK in the 70s and 80s when Karunanidhi was unable to unseat the AIADMK till MGR's demise. They fear Vijay could end up doing the same to the DMK and AIADMK.

The proposal is that Edappadi Palaniswami be sworn in as chief minister with the DMK extending outside support. But even this arrangement with the support of parties like the PMK, DMDK, AMMK, IUML will not add up to 118. Besides, the presence of the PMK will keep the Left and VCK away.

This proposal of a DMK-AIADMK tango brings back memories of 1979 when the then Union minister of Steel Biju Patnaik tried for a merger of the DMK and AIADMK. He had apparently managed to convince Karunanidhi and MGR to retain the party name as DMK and keep the AIADMK flag for the merged entity. Karunanidhi was to be party chief while MGR was to be CM. But the plan came unstuck with senior party leaders reportedly opposing the proposal.

Certain sections of the TVK, in order to keep the party constituency engaged, have tried to test the waters by floating the possibility of en masse resignations by TVK MLA-elects, should the DMK and AIADMK form a team. Of course, this is not on paper, so the party has the option to dismiss it as media speculation later.

But the question is what purpose that would serve. Besides, can Vijay indeed ensure each one of his 106 colleagues put in their papers? Most of them are first-time MLA-elects and have spent considerable resources to get elected, with the Tiruppattur candidate winning by just one vote.

Right now, while Vijay faces the obstacles put in his way for forming the government, the bigger threat could be for the AIADMK. Already five years out of power, many of the MLAs would not relish the prospect of another five years out of office. Pressure would build to form a bloc and do business with the TVK. More so because a section within the party thinks that working with the DMK would be committing political harakiri, as it would show them as power-hungry opportunists.

Tamil Nadu may have voted for the 'whistle' in large numbers, but the whistle has not yet been blown on the 2026 electoral match yet.

- Ends