Where Assam's voter turnout was highest and why

High polling in Lower Assam overlapped with seats that have larger estimated Muslim voter shares. Across 126 post-delimitation constituencies, turnout and estimated Muslim voter concentration showed a strong positive association.

In Short

• Assam recorded 84.4% turnout by 5 pm, higher than 82.4% in 2021
• Lower Assam saw highest turnout at 86.5%, with 42% estimated Muslim voters
• 46 constituencies had over 85% turnout; 38 had Muslim voter share above 25%

What’s new:

Assam recorded 84.4 per cent turnout till 5 pm on Wednesday, in its first Assembly election under the 2023 delimitation, up from the 2021 final turnout of 82.4 per cent, according to Election Commission data. But that turnout was not spread evenly across the state.

Why it matters:

The strongest turnout came from Lower Assam, where many seats also have higher estimated Muslim voter shares, according to DIU analysis. That matters because these are constituencies where the AIUDF, Congress and their allies are competing for Muslim-heavy electorates. The key question is not only how many people voted in Assam, but also where the voting surge was concentrated and whether it can alter seat outcomes.

In Numbers:

• Assam turnout by 5 pm: 84.4%
• Assam final turnout in 2021: 82.4%
• Lower Assam’s 66 seats: 86.5% turnout, 42% estimated Muslim voter share
• Upper Assam’s 40 seats: 81.2% turnout, 13% estimated Muslim voter share
• Constituencies above 85% turnout: 46
• Of these, seats with estimated Muslim voter share above 25%: 38
• Highest-turnout constituency: Dalgaon (Darrang), 94.6% turnout
• Estimated Muslim voter share in Dalgaon: 95%
• Dhubri district turnout: 90.5%
• Dhubri’s estimated Muslim voter share: 77%

Assam’s headline turnout figure masked a sharp regional divide. The highest polling was concentrated in Lower Assam, especially in districts along the south bank of the Brahmaputra.

Barpeta and Bongaigaon each averaged 91.5 per cent turnout by 5 pm, Goalpara averaged 90.9 per cent, and Dhubri 90.5 per cent. These districts also have some of the state’s highest estimated Muslim voter concentrations, according to India Today Data Intelligence Unit estimates based on electoral roll name-matching and Census 2011 demography.

The contrast with Upper Assam was clear. Tinsukia averaged 78.9 per cent, Jorhat 79.8 per cent, and Dibrugarh 80.1 per cent. In these districts, the estimated Muslim voter share ranges between 10 and 13 per cent.

The regional averages show the same divide. Lower Assam’s 66 seats averaged 86.5 per cent turnout, with an estimated 42 per cent Muslim voter share. Upper Assam’s 40 seats averaged 81.2 per cent, with 13 per cent. That five-point gap is the sharpest divide in the data.

At the constituency level, the pattern was even stronger. Of the 46 constituencies that crossed 85 per cent turnout by 5 pm, 38 had an estimated Muslim voter share above 25 per cent. All 10 of the highest-turnout seats fell in this band. Dalgaon in Darrang recorded the state’s highest turnout at 94.6 per cent, with an estimated 95 per cent Muslim voter share, according to DIU’s SIR analysis.

Still, the relationship was not absolute. The Barak Valley averaged 82.9 per cent turnout despite an estimated 45 per cent Muslim voter share, higher than Lower Assam’s estimated share, but with lower turnout. Hailakandi, with an estimated 60 per cent Muslim voters, recorded a 78.9 per cent turnout. That suggests demography alone does not explain turnout.

Dhubri remained a standout. With five post-delimitation seats and the state’s highest estimated Muslim voter share at 77 per cent, the district averaged 90.5 per cent turnout. Under pre-delimitation boundaries, Dhubri had also led Assam’s turnout in 2016 and 2021, averaging 91.4 per cent in both elections. In 2026, four of its five seats crossed 89 per cent; only Bilasipara lagged, at 87.2 per cent.

Big Picture:

The turnout map suggests that Assam’s electoral energy was concentrated in a region where the political contest is especially intense. Lower Assam’s high-turnout belt includes seats where Muslim-heavy electorates are central to the contest among the AIUDF, Congress and their allies. By contrast, the BJP has historically drawn strength from Upper Assam and the tribal belt, where turnout was lower. The story of this election may depend less on the statewide turnout figure than on whether this regional surge translates into seats.

- Ends