First Assembly elections in J&K in 10 years. Will voters throng booths?

Jammu and Kashmir's assembly poll, which will be held in three phases in September and October, will test the region's democratic resilience following the abrogation of Article 370.

In Short

• First poll in J&K since Article 370 abrogation
• 2014 saw 65.5% turnout despite boycott calls
• J&K to go polls on September 18, September 25, and October 1

Jammu and Kashmir witnessed its highest voter turnout in 35 years in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now, ahead of its first Assembly poll in a decade, will the now-Union Territory’s people show the same enthusiasm?

• The 2024 Assembly elections will mark the first local elections in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370, testing whether the high voter turnout seen in the recent Lok Sabha election will continue.
• Historically, voter turnout in Kashmir has fluctuated, with a sharp rise in the 2000s. The 2014 election saw a 65.5 per cent turnout despite separatist boycott calls. This election could signal deeper voter trust in the electoral process.
• The Bharatiya Janata Party made major gains in 2014, winning 25 seats with a turnout of over 60 per cent, while the National Conference, once dominant, saw its influence wane. This election will be key in defining the region's political future.

WHY IT MATTERS

This election is a critical moment for Kashmir's democratic process. It shows a potential lasting shift in the region's future governance after years of turmoil and the revocation of its special status.

IN NUMBERS

Voter turnout has fluctuated dramatically in Jammu and Kashmir's Assembly Elections. In 1962, turnout was just over 40 per cent, climbing to around 75 per cent by 1987, reflecting rising political engagement. Congress held power in the 1960s and early 1970s, while the NC dominated the 1980s. By 2002, a coalition between the People's Democratic Party and Congress saw turnout reaching over 61 per cent. In 2014, with a 65.5 per cent turnout, the PDP unseated the NC. Participation has steadily increased, with rising female turnout marking a fundamental shift.

IN-DEPTH

The 2014 Assembly elections were a turning point. Voter turnout hit about 66 per cent despite boycott calls by separatist groups. Northern Kashmir led the way, with over 70 per cent turnout in five constituencies during the first phase. By the end, 30 of 46 constituencies had turnout over 50 per cent, and 13 exceeded 70 per cent. Even central Kashmir, where turnout has historically been low, saw improvements.
The fractured mandate of 2014 saw the PDP win 28 seats but fall short of a majority. The BJP followed with 25 seats, the NC secured 15, and Congress took 12. The BJP led the vote share with 23 per cent, followed by PDP at around 23 per cent, the NC at nearly 21 per cent, and Congress at 18 per cent.

BIG PICTURE

Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape changed drastically after the 2019 revocation of Article 370. The region's first Assembly election in a decade will define its future governance. While Muslims make up over 96 per cent of Kashmir's population, the region has been shaped by decades of separatism and militancy, especially after the 1987 elections. But since the 1990s, as militancy declined, electoral politics regained traction. Key elections in 2002, 2008, and 2014 saw significant voter turnout despite ongoing unrest.

In 2014, the BJP made significant gains, winning 25 seats with a turnout above 60 per cent. The Congress maintained steady results, particularly in high-turnout constituencies. The NC, once dominant, has seen its influence wane in high-turnout areas, while the PDP peaked in low-turnout regions in 2002. These shifts suggest changing political dynamics, with higher turnout increasingly favouring BJP and Congress.

EXPERT VIEW

Rekha Choudhary, a political expert on Kashmir, noted: "Gauging the electoral vibrancy in Kashmir in the ongoing 2024 Assembly elections could be tricky. This time, high voter turnout doesn't seem to be the sole marker of legitimacy as it was in the past. Instead, the widespread interest and involvement in the electoral process are truly significant."

The state will go to polls on September 18, September 25, and October 1.