Hopes for Middle East peace grow with Israel and Lebanon eyeing ceasefire

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WASHINGTON/DUBAI – Optimism grew on April 16 that the war in the Middle East may be near an end, with a key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the administration of US President Donald Trump talking up hopes for a deal that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The Israeli Cabinet met on April 15 to discuss a possible ceasefire in neighbouring Lebanon, a senior Israeli official said, more than six weeks into its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Two senior Lebanese officials said they had been briefed that efforts were under way for a ceasefire but had no further details on how long it would last or when it would be announced.

Mr Trump said talks between leaders of both countries would take place on April 16, without providing details.

Ending the fighting in Lebanon was a key sticking point in earlier peace talks, along with how to deal with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

US and Iranian officials were weighing a return to Pakistan for more talks as early as the coming weekend after negotiations on April 12 ended without a breakthrough.

Pakistan’s army chief, a key figure in the mediation, arrived in Tehran on April 15 to prevent a renewal of the conflict.

“We feel good about the prospects of a deal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a news conference, describing the Pakistan-mediated discussions as “productive and ongoing”.

She denied reports that the US had formally requested an extension of the two-week ceasefire agreed by the two sides on April 8.

More in-person talks have yet to be confirmed but would likely take place in Pakistan again, Ms Leavitt said.

Pakistan’s military confirmed that Field Marshal Asim Munir had arrived in Tehran. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Mr Munir, who mediated the last round of talks, would seek “to narrow gaps” between the two parties.

Mr Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, said talks needed to recognise Iran’s rights, interests and dignity to be fruitful.

“But if it continues, as it usually does, relying on deception and, in fact, on a lack of commitment and failure to adhere to agreements and set terms, then it naturally cannot succeed,” he said during a pro-government rally in Tehran.

The talks last weekend broke down without an agreement to end the war, which Mr Trump began alongside Israel on Feb 28, triggering Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbours and reigniting conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thousands of people have been killed, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, while soaring energy costs have rattled investors and policymakers around the world.

Stock markets have rallied strongly in recent days on expectations of a swift resolution to the fighting, with Wall Street indexes hitting record highs on April 15 as crude oil prices steadied.

“While there are hopes for de-escalation, many investors remain sceptical, given that US-Iran talks have repeatedly broken down even after appearing to make progress,” said Mr Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

Economic pressure on Iran

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that China’s purchase of Iranian oil would “pause” given the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports. He said the US could impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Iranian crude.

The Treasury has warned two Chinese banks not to process Iranian money or face sanctions, he added, without naming them.

China previously bought more than 80 per cent of Iran’s shipped oil.

Mr Trump said on April 15 that he had told Chinese President Xi Jinping not to give Iran weapons, which Mr Xi said he was not doing. He also said China was very happy that he was “permanently opening” the strait.

“I am doing it for them, also – And the World,” he wrote on social media, adding: “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks.”

The war has led Iran to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for global crude and gas shipments – to all but its own vessels, sharply reducing Gulf exports and leaving energy importers scrambling for alternative supplies.

Tankers intercepted

During the first 48 hours of the US blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels made it past US forces, the US military said.

Additionally, nine vessels complied with directions from US forces to turn around and return to an Iranian port or coastal area.

However, Iran’s Fars News agency said an Iranian supertanker subject to US sanctions crossed the strait towards Iran’s Imam Khomeini port despite the blockade.

Fars did not identify the tanker or give further details of its voyage.

Iran’s joint military command warned it would halt trade flows in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea – which connects to the Suez Canal – if the US blockade continued.

Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the strait without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the US, provided that a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict, a source briefed by Tehran said.

However, tensions remain high, with Mr Trump also threatening to escalate the conflict if the war resumes.

“We could take out every one of their bridges in one hour. We could take out every one of their power plants, electric power plants, in one hour. We don’t want to do that... so we’ll see what happens,” he told Fox Business Network.

Talks complicated by nuclear issue, Lebanon

Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a key sticking point at last weekend’s talks.

The US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran – an apparent concession from longstanding demands for a permanent ban – while Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Washington has also pressed for any enriched nuclear material to be removed from Iran, while Tehran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions.

One source involved in the talks said backchannel discussions had made progress in narrowing gaps, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be presented at a new round of talks. REUTERS