Uncertainty hangs over timing of US-Iran peace talks as Switzerland meeting is scrapped

• A formal signing ceremony has been cancelled, raising uncertainty about the new 60-day ceasefire agreement.
• The US-Iran agreement grants Iran sanctions relief and asset unfreezing, conflicting with President Trump’s prior demand for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”.
• Ongoing Israeli fighting in Lebanon and Iran’s defiant stance on nuclear talks cast doubt on the ceasefire’s long-term effectiveness.

ZURICH – The scrapping of plans for US and Iranian negotiators to meet in Switzerland on June 19 has created a new uncertainty about the timing of talks that will seek to turn a memorandum to end more than three months of war into a more permanent peace deal.

Talks could also be complicated by an escalation of fighting in Lebanon, where Israel launched new attacks on Hezbollah militants.

Lebanese authorities said 18 people were killed in air strikes, and Israel said four of its soldiers were killed in one of the Iran-backed group’s deadliest attacks of the war.

The memorandum of understanding signed this week by the Iranian and US presidents left discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme and other tough issues until later, giving the sides 60 days to reach a lasting agreement or extend the interim deal.

Preparations for technical talks to start in the Swiss mountaintop resort of Burgenstock were far advanced when US Vice-President J.D. Vance said on June 18 he had dropped plans to attend, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Earlier on June 18, a source familiar with Tehran’s thinking said Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was not planning to attend.

Not only do some of the toughest issues remain unresolved, but efforts to secure a lasting agreement could also be complicated by Israel’s conflict in Lebanon with Hezbollah.

The interim deal requires the United States, Iran and their allies to declare an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Israel, left out of the talks, says it is not party to the deal. Violence abated in Lebanon earlier this week, but has since picked up.

The war, which began on Feb 28 with US and Israel air attacks on Iran, has left at least 7,000 people dead, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. It also sent energy prices soaring and shaken global markets, though oil prices have dipped this week.

Prospects have brightened for more oil supply since tankers began moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried nearly a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before it was blockaded by Iran during the war.

Iran said it was ready to begin technical talks after this week’s accord extended a tenuous ceasefire by at least 60 days.

Vance and the US delegation had been ready to depart as soon as plans were finalised, a White House spokesman said in a statement late on June 18.

“But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable,” he said.

A Swiss Foreign Ministry statement said the talks were postponed, and that Switzerland remained ready to facilitate the talks and the relevant preparatory work was continuing.

US officials had also said they would hold a formal signing ceremony for the deal in Switzerland, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry cast doubt on the plan, calling it unnecessary after both countries’ presidents signed the pact.

Goals ‘fell short’

In Washington, some of US President Donald Trump’s Republican allies in Congress questioned whether he conceded too much in order to end the conflict, unpopular with most Americans in the run-up to midterm elections in November.

In March, Trump swore to end the war only with Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”.

But the memorandum signed with Iran instead provides relief from economic sanctions, unfreezes assets worth tens of billions of dollars, and issues immediate US waivers for its exports of oil.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Trump signed the deal “out of desperation” and signalled that approaching talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, among Trump’s stated reasons for starting the war, would not be easy.

“If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it,” he said in a message.

The deal gives negotiators 60 days to agree on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme, unless an extension is agreed, and set up a US$300 billion (S$388 billion) reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives.

Vance said Washington would also seek to limit Iran’s long-range missiles.

The growing cost of the war also drew the spotlight, as the Pentagon told lawmakers it needed US$80 billion to cover the costs and some unrelated bills, the Wall Street Journal said.

US officials say the negotiations could still yield a strong agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, aiming to better one dating from 2015 between Iran, the US and other countries that Trump tore up in his first term.

But critics say Iran is in a stronger position now, having withstood a superpower attack, demonstrated its control of the Strait of Hormuz and gained valuable waivers to financial sanctions.

Iran has said it will still exert control over Hormuz in partnership with Oman, its neighbour across the critical waterway, and intends to charge ships service fees that did not exist before the war, although not during the 60-day talks.

In Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced by the fighting, fresh Israeli strikes on June 19 killed at least 18, the state news agency NNA said, in attacks Israel said were directed at Hezbollah targets.

That raised doubt about how far Trump will go to force his wartime ally to halt an offensive he has now pledged to end.

Trump has become openly critical of Israel’s operations in Lebanon, opening one of the biggest rifts between the two countries in decades. REUTERS