Why selling US F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia is so contentious

WASHINGTON – The friendship struck up between Mr Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is so strong that the US president says he would approve selling
the most advanced American fighter jet available for export to the kingdom.

Riyadh’s bid to buy F-35s looks set to get a boost on Nov 18, when the crown prince visits the White House. The two are expected to sign several economic and defence deals
, including on F-35s.

A sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia has the potential to alter the military balance in the Middle East, with potential ramifications for Israel, whose government is anxious to preserve a military edge over its neighbours that is enshrined in US law.

What is the F-35 and why does Riyadh want it?

The F-35 stealth fighter is one the most advanced jets in the world. It is sometimes called the “quarterback” of the skies because of its ability to gather intelligence that can be shared with ground units, ships and other aircraft, and to lead attacks with swarms of drones.

The plane is capable of long-range strike missions and specialises in locating and destroying complex enemy air defence systems in preparation for a bombing campaign or ground assault. F-35s have been used to search for Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria and were involved in Israel’s attacks on Iran during the countries’ 12-day war in June.

The plane is manufactured by Lockheed Martin and was developed in partnership with Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Australia, which all committed to buy it. The most expensive variant, the naval F-35B with vertical take-off and landing capability, costs more than US$100 million (S$130 million).

Many countries are keen to get their hands on the F-35, Saudi Arabia included.

Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, wants to bolster the kingdom’s security in the face of threats from states such as Iran and militias across the Middle East.

MBS, as the prince is known, sees stronger ties with the US, including an F-35 purchase and mutual defence pact similar to one struck with Qatar, as critical to Vision 2030, his multi-trillion dollar plan to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy away from oil and attract foreign investment in AI data centres.

What would it take for the US to approve a sale?

The US only sells F-35s to longstanding military allies, given how sensitive the technology is.

Congress can potentially hold up export licences even if the president approves them, and many American lawmakers are wary of compromising the military superiority of key ally Israel.

The Jewish state is the only country in the Middle East to have F-35s, and under US law, Washington must ensure it preserves what is called a qualitative military edge over other countries in the region.

How does Israel view a possible Saudi F-35 purchase?

Officials in Israel are known to be wary about the idea of Saudi Arabia, which still does not formally recognise the country, getting its own F-35s, in case it narrows Israel’s capability advantage.

Air superiority is particularly important for Israel in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Oct 7, 2023
.

Israel has been in conflicts with Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as with Iran itself. In each of those, Israel quickly obtained dominance of the skies, partly through its use of F-35s to take out its enemies’ air defences.

Israel’s ambassador to the US, Mr Yechiel Leiter, played down concerns about a possible US-Saudi F-35 deal or other sales of US weapons to Arab countries.

“There’s no indication that Israel’s qualitative edge will be compromised,” Mr Leiter told the Jerusalem Post in an interview published on Nov 13.

Is there a way for the US to satisfy both the Israelis and the Saudis?

Former Israel Air Force chief Eitan Ben Eliyahu told a Tel Aviv radio station that a Saudi F-35 deal “would change the balance of power in the Middle East”.

But he said it would take at least four years for the Saudis to take delivery of the planes, and Israel might preserve its battlefield advantage by sourcing new advanced weaponry from the US in the meantime.

Israel may be more ready to accept a Saudi F-35 purchase if Riyadh agrees to normalise diplomatic ties. But that looks unlikely to happen in the near term as MBS wants progress toward a Palestinian state, which has become even less likely after the Oct 7 attacks.

Past experience suggests how easily a sale of cutting-edge US weaponry can be derailed by security concerns.

The United Arab Emirates tried to buy F-35s several years ago and thought its decision to recognise Israel in 2020 would help those efforts. It called off the US$23 billion plan a year later, saying its priorities had changed. The country’s officials were frustrated with the US over how long it was taking to get approval.

What about those security risks?

Another aspect crucial to the US is safeguarding the F-35’s technology.

The US already removed Nato ally Turkey from the F-35 programme in 2019 after that country decided to purchase a Russian missile defence system instead of the US-made Patriot. US officials were concerned that allowing Ankara to fly the F-35 in tandem with the Russian S-400 system might allow Moscow’s military engineers to identify ways to defeat the plane’s systems.

While Saudi Arabia views Washington as its foremost ally, it is also deepening ties with China, Washington’s key geopolitical rival. This worries some US officials, who fear China may end up gaining access to some of the most sophisticated American military systems as a result.

For that reason, F-35s sold to Saudi Arabia are likely to come with software restrictions that make them less capable than those used by the US military.

Former Israel air force chief Eliyahu cited the example of an earlier sale of US F-15 jets to Saudi Arabia where the planes had some of their systems “neutralised” after the US conferred with the Israelis. BLOOMBERG