Far-right AfD leads as Merz rues ‘disaster’ in worst state election result in post-war Germany

SCHWERIN, Germany – The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place in a state election in north-eastern Germany on Sept 20, voting projections showed, delivering the worst result for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s mainstream conservative party since 1949.

“It’s a disaster,” Merz said after exit polls were published, although he signalled he would fight on as chancellor and continue his reform agenda after speculation that a bad result could prompt him to resign.

The AfD was set to win 38.3 per cent in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.4 per cent, according to projections on ARD public television.

Both parties were far ahead of Merz’s conservatives, who at the latest count had fallen to 4.9 per cent, below the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter the state Parliament and indicating they may be excluded altogether.

The result on Sept 20 has given the AfD its second top-place finish in September at the state level. The party leads in national opinion polls, but has been kept from power by the other main parties’ refusal to work with it.

In another election the same day in the capital Berlin, the far-left Linke party was at 25.3 per cent, while the vote share of Merz’s conservatives, who currently govern the state in a coalition with the Social Democrats, tumbled to 19 per cent.

The AfD also gained in strength in the typically liberal city, hitting 16.3 per cent. It is the first time Linke has topped polls in the state, where it wants to nationalise housing from corporate landlords and cap rents.

Merz vows to continue with reforms

The results on Sept 20 may not prove a knockout blow for Merz, but his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the triumph of the AfD in an earlier state election in Saxony-Anhalt have left his future in the balance.

“It will now become even more difficult for the federal government to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reform programme,” Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based ​DIW research institute, told Reuters.

If the ruling coalition parties stick to their red lines, he said, “political paralysis will become entrenched, economic weakness will persist, and the likelihood of an AfD election victory in 2029 will rise further”.

The SPD’s popular state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, had climbed in the polls ahead of Sept 20’s vote by openly criticising both the AfD and the Merz-led federal government’s reforms.

Schwesig also said the AfD had won votes by criticising Germany’s support for Ukraine. She had at one time supported the Nord Stream pipeline project carrying Russian gas through her state into Germany before it was blown up in 2022, but later changed her position.

“First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military,” she said.

“And a second point: Many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again.”

German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who is also the SPD leader, signalled he wanted a change of course, noting voters’ concerns over pension reforms. “As the federal government, we need to analyse why there is such great uncertainty in the country,” he told ARD.

But Merz instead doubled down on a reform agenda that he says will revive sluggish growth in Europe’s largest economy.

“What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience,” he said. “I would go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism.”

The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, and the capital Berlin follow the Sept 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD came close to the rare feat of winning an absolute majority.

In just over a decade, the party, which wants to take tough action to deport foreigners with no right to stay in Germany, restore energy ties with Russia and quit the euro, has transformed itself from a fringe eurosceptic movement into the country’s most popular party.

Sept 20’s results underscore the advances the AfD has made in recent years and raise fresh questions over the “firewall” strategy, under which the other main parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.

Struggling Merz

Elected in 2025 on a promise of reforms to return Germany’s stagnant economy to growth, Merz has struggled to win over voters as a stream of communication missteps served to compound resentment over unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms.

Disillusion with his government has hung over the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on issues including soaring energy and housing costs. Merz presented a consumer relief package on Sept 18 that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.

Several people who voted in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said living costs were a major concern.

“Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly afford anything any more,” voter Carlotta Heick told Reuters in the state capital.

One elderly man, who asked not to give his name, criticised funding for foreign aid. “We need our money here, for our country, for children and pensioners.” REUTERS