Shaky US-Iran ceasefire in doubt, as Israel pounds Lebanon

• Israel's heavy strikes on Lebanon killed hundreds, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation and claim ceasefire violation.
• US and Iran have conflicting agendas for peace talks in Pakistan, focusing on the scope of the ceasefire and Iran's nuclear programme.
• Despite a ceasefire, tensions remain high as both sides threaten to resume fighting, impacting energy markets and regional stability.

WASHINGTON/DUBAI/TEL AVIV/BEIRUT - Israel pounded Lebanon with its heaviest strikes yet on April 8, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran, which said the attacks violated a ceasefire deal agreed with the United States a day earlier.

Iran and the US, meanwhile, laid out sharply contrasting agendas for talks that aim to forge a more durable peace in the region.

Those talks, due to take place in Pakistan on April 11, will be led by US Vice-President J.D. Vance and Iran’s Parliament speaker, Mr Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Both Iranian officials questioned whether the ceasefire could hold, saying the ceasefire agreement had been undermined by Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, where Israel has been pursuing a parallel war with the Iran-aligned militia Hezbollah.

“The US must choose - ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Mr Araqchi wrote on social media.

Israel and the US both said the two-week ceasefire did not cover Lebanon, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes would continue.

“I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t,” Mr Vance told reporters in Budapest, adding that Israel had agreed to show restraint to help the peace talks succeed.

US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire late on April 7, two hours before a deadline he had set for Iran to open the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its “whole civilisation.”

Though both the US and Iran declared victory in a five-week-old war that has killed thousands, their core disputes remained unresolved. Each side is sticking to competing demands for a deal that could shape the Middle East for generations.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions also remain a sticking point. Mr Trump said Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium, which can be turned into nuclear warheads, and the White House said Iran has indicated it would turn over its existing stocks.

“The United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried... Nuclear ‘Dust,” Mr Trump said on social media.

Mr Qalibaf, however, said it was allowed to continue enriching uranium under the terms of the ceasefire.

Despite the uncertainty, world stock indexes surged while oil prices plunged 14 per cent to settle near US$95 per barrel, after falling as low as US$90.40. Benchmark Brent crude remains roughly US$25 higher than before the joint US-Israel attacks began.

Tehran’s newly demonstrated ability to cut off Gulf energy supplies through its grip on the strait, despite decades of massive US military investment in the region, shows how the conflict has already altered power dynamics in the Gulf.

‘Finger on the trigger’

Mr Netanyahu said Israel had achieved many of its objectives in the war with Iran, but stressed that Israel had its “finger on the trigger” and was prepared to return to fighting at “any moment.”

Iran’s Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed source warning that Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue.

Lebanon’s civil defence service said 254 people had been killed in Israel’s strikes across Lebanon on April 8.

The highest toll was in the capital Beirut, where Israeli strikes killed 91 people, it said.

Residents said some of the Israeli strikes had come without the usual warnings for civilians to evacuate.

Iran also struck oil facilities in nearby Gulf countries, including a pipeline in Saudi Arabia that has been used to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, according to an oil industry source.

Kuwait, ​Bahrain and the UAE also reported missile and drone strikes.

The Strait of Hormuz remained shut to vessels sailing without a permit and shippers said they needed more clarity before resuming transit.

MarineTraffic data showed two Greek-owned and two Chinese-owned bulk carriers have passed through the strait since early on April 8.

In a flurry of online posts, Mr Trump announced new tariffs of 50 per cent on all goods from any country that supplies arms to Iran, though he lacks the authority to do so.

Iran’s ruling establishment survives

Crowds took to the streets of Iran overnight to celebrate, waving Iranian flags and burning those of the US and Israel. But there was also wariness that a deal would not hold.

“Israel will not allow diplomacy to work and Trump might change his view tomorrow. But at least we can sleep tonight without strikes,” Alireza, 29, a government employee in Tehran, told Reuters by phone.

The war was launched on Feb 28 by Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu, who said they aimed to prevent Iran from projecting force beyond its borders, end its nuclear programme and create conditions for Iranians to topple their rulers.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on April 8 said Washington had won a decisive military victory.

But so far Iran retains both its stockpile of near-weapons-grade highly enriched uranium and its ability to hit its neighbours with missiles and drones. The clerical leadership, which faced mass protests months ago, has withstood the superpower onslaught with no sign of internal collapse.

“The enemy, in its unjust, illegal and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said. REUTERS