Opinion | Why Is Israel Playing With Fire? Because It Has Understood It Can

The Middle East is once again on a boil. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in a strike on Beirut, the Israeli military said today. The flare-up this time is truly alarming and could be apocalyptic in its potential. 

The Beginning Of The Recent Strikes

On September 17-18, the world was astonished by what seemed to be back-to-back attacks in Lebanon involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies belonging mostly to the Iran-backed Hezbollah. The attacks were allegedly an Israeli operation.  Almost 30 people lost their lives, with thousands reported injured. Soon after, Israel launched airstrikes on settlements in southern and eastern Lebanon in what it called 'targeted assassinations' to eliminate Hezbollah leaders and operatives. According to estimates from the Lebanese health ministry, more than 1,000 people have died in these strikes, with more than 5,000 injured. Many of them are civilians given how Hezbollah is well-integrated into the local population. A number of other Hezbollah leaders, like Ibrahim Aqil, have been confirmed dead.

To be fair, it was Hezbollah that had begun the attacks on northern  Israel in response to Hamas's multipronged strikes in Israel on October 7 last year. Hezbollah's rationale was to open a second front against Israel and force it to declare a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the north of the country have been displaced by Hezbollah's assault.

The Destruction In Gaza

Almost a year has passed since the war in Gaza started. Large parts of the enclave have been flattened, much of Hamas degraded, and many of its leaders killed. The overall death toll stands at 40,000; at least a third of them are women and children.  

In May this year, Israel launched relentless air strikes in Rafah and followed it up with a ground incursion. Yet, it has not been able to realise its objective of freeing all hostages taken captive by Hamas on October 7. While some have been released, others have died in captivity, and many others continue to be held hostage. 

For a large part, Israel's retaliation against Hezbollah had been calculated as it wanted to preempt any large-scale conflagration. However, since July end, when Hezbollah strikes on Israel killed 12 children, its attacks have steadily intensified. Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, has said that what Israel was doing was conducting "precise strikes" in Lebanon against Hezbollah command centres, weapons stores and leadership. 

Why Is Israel Feeling So Confident?

Hezbollah, after all, is not Hamas. It is entirely dependent on Iran and has a larger, more professional and sophisticated army. It even has seats in the Lebanese parliament. It is battle-hardened and has fought wars with Israel earlier. In 2000, it managed to drive the Israeli Defense Forces out of Southern Lebanon, and in 2006, the group forced it to retreat. The organisation has often been called "a state within a state".  While many Lebanese despise the Shiite group - and many would be happy with Nasrallah's elimination as he has brought to Lebanon one disaster after the other while carrying out what they say was the 'Iranian' agenda - within the community, it is admired and has contributed to keeping Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in power in Syria. 

In spite of all this, Israel's actions betray a belief that perhaps it can now do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza. After all, Lebanon is a politically dysfunctional state; its currency has collapsed, its economy is in tatters and as per World Bank data, 44% of its population is living in poverty. A war will be catastrophic for the country. Already, Israel has demonstrated that in spite of widespread condemnation of its use of disproportionate force in the Gaza Strip - where it seems Israel is now winding down operations - it has been able to stay intent on its course, with the international community incapable of or unwilling to halt its assault. 

Iran Is On The Fence

Next, Hezbollah's mentor, Iran, is not in a comfortable position either. It's facing both internal and external challenges. In fact, with its direct strikes on Israel in April, Tehran in a way demonstrated that it did not have the appetite for a direct war with Israel, which has both a superior economy and military. Thus, while Iran might not throw its favourite protege under the bus, it may also not be in a position to shore up Hezbollah's arsenal. Also, the numerous recent assassinations - Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh included - point to a breach within the ranks of both Iran and Hezbollah. This is sure to lead to further internal rupture and dissonance. 

The fact that Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian has also declared his intention to cooperate with the West over the nuclear deal is also added motivation for Israel. Pezeshkian perhaps sees a window of opportunity while the Democrats still hold power in Washington. He may not wish to jeopardise this opportunity by rushing to aid Hezbollah. 

Yet another factor for Israel's emboldening may be the looming US presidential elections.  In case of a war breaking out in the region that pits Israel against one or other of its adversaries, there is sure to be bipartisan support for Israel in America. The US has stationed 12 warships in the region, and the IDF just this week announced that the US was disbursing another $8.7 billion in military aid. It's doubtful whether such similar aid will be forthcoming for Iran from any of its friends. 

Israel's Actions Have A Cost

All these factors may have spurred Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but his actions come at a great cost for Israel too. The Israeli economy is suffering. Foreign investments have dropped, tourism, one of the country's mainstays, has waned, about 46,000 businesses have gone bankrupt, and the country's credit rating has dwindled. On the military front as well, while Israelis still continue to be held captive by Hamas, the IDF has suffered serious losses too. Reports say that around 10,000 reservists have sought mental health support and a significant number failed to show up when called up a second or third time, citing "burnout". Israel's own resources are depleting fast and will need time to be replenished. Nevertheless, the public approval for a war with Lebanon seems much higher than that for its actions in Gaza. Nasrallah's assassination will go a long way in shoring up support for the Netanyahu government.

Beyond all this, however, the bottom line is that there are no permanent military solutions to the conflict in the region because the problem is essentially a political one. Israel may flatten Gaza and it may even go on to repeat that repertoire in Lebanon. It may destroy Hamas and Hezbollah. But the hatred will live on. With time, new avatars of Hamas and Hezbollah will continue to spring up.

(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author