ANALYSIS: Bello El-Rufai faces political crossroads in Kaduna North ahead of 2027

As 2027 approaches, Bello El-Rufai’s political fate will test the limits of party discipline, personal popularity, and elite reconciliation in Kaduna politics.

Bello El-Rufai, a son of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, has become one of the most closely watched politicians in Kaduna State politics as alignments shift ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Bello, the federal lawmaker representing Kaduna North Federal Constituency, rose to prominence within the All Progressives Congress (APC) not merely on the strength of his surname, but also through strategic political positioning. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 2023, defeating seasoned contenders, including Samaila Suleiman, a former lawmaker with strong grassroots structures in the constituency. At the time, Bello enjoyed the combined weight of two powerful forces: his father, then governor of Kaduna State, and Uba Sani, who was a pillar of the El-Rufai political structure and the APC governorship candidate.

Before his 2023 nomination, Bello served as Chief of Staff to Uba Sani during his tenure in the Senate, cementing a close working relationship that positioned him as a trusted political insider. His father, for his part, forged the APC’s succession plan that produced Mr Sani as governor and facilitated Bello’s election to the National Assembly.

However, the post-election reality has altered these arrangements.

The El-Rufai – Uba Sani factor

Governor Sani and Mr El-Rufai have drifted apart politically, culminating in Mr El-Rufai’s defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), where he has emerged as a prominent national figure. The split has inevitably placed Bello in a delicate position, caught between loyalty to the APC and familial loyalty to a father now leading opposition efforts.

While Bello has remained in the APC and as a federal legislator, questions are being asked whether the APC should again support his re-election bid.

A crowded field and rising pressure

Kaduna North is no longer a safe seat for Bello. Several political actors are already positioning themselves for 2027. Among them is Samaila Suleiman, Bello’s 2023 rival, who retains strong name recognition and networks. More significantly, some serving commissioners, senior aides, and political associates are reportedly eyeing the ticket, emboldened by the perception that Bello’s influence within the APC has waned.

This raises a critical question: Can Bello El-Rufai survive the internal APC contest?

Historically, incumbency at the federal level offers the advantage of visibility, access, and constituency projects. However, in Kaduna and many other Nigerian states, state-level power has often proven decisive in determining party tickets.

However, blocking Bello in the APC risks alienating a constituency where the lawmaker enjoys unusual cross-sectional popularity, particularly among the youth.

Many observers argue that political interest may ultimately compel compromise.

“Politics is not emotional; it is arithmetic,” said Lawal Musa, a resident of Badarawa, Kaduna. “If Bello is popular and delivering, any governor who blocks him will have to answer to the people. And he is actually doing good for his people.”

Voices from Kaduna North

Bello could not be reached on his known telephone numbers. However, his close political associate, Farouk Yahaya, told PREMIUM TIMES that the lawmaker does not want to speak on the matter at this time.

Among residents, opinions are varied but intense.

“Bello may be El-Rufai’s son, but he is our representative first,” said Aisha Abubakar, a youth organiser in Unguwan Rimi. “We can see what Bello is doing.”

Another resident, Sadiq Ibrahim, warned against internal party battles:

“If APC pushes Bello out unfairly, they may hand the seat to the opposition.”

However, some party loyalists believe the governor should back his own camp.

“Politics is about loyalty,” said Kabiru Saleh, an APC ward official. “You can’t serve two masters. Bello must choose clearly.”

Another resident of Unguwan Sarki, and an APC member, said, “I like the member, but we are talking of politics, and loyalty is the deciding factor. If the party chooses him, fine; otherwise, we will move on. APC is the winning emblem in Kaduna State.”

The ADC option: Exit or Leverage?

Speculation is also growing over whether Bello would eventually decamp to the ADC to join his father if the APC door closes. While such a move would be risky, given the APC’s entrenched structures in Kaduna, it could also transform Kaduna North into a major battleground, especially if Bello’s personal popularity crosses party lines.

For now, Bello has given no public indication of defection. His camp continues to project confidence, banking on grassroots support and legislative performance rather than factional loyalty.

What lies ahead

As 2027 approaches, Bello’s political fate will test the limits of party discipline, personal popularity, and elite reconciliation in Kaduna politics. Whether the APC chooses accommodation over confrontation or vice versa will not only shape Kaduna North’s representation but also signal how far the APC is willing to go in redefining power after the El-Rufai era.