ANALYSIS: Why Kebbi’s school abduction happened, what It reveals about rising insecurity in Nigeria’s North-West

But beyond the immediate tragedy, the Maga school attack fits into a widening pattern of coordinated bandit incursions spreading across the North-west.

When armed men stormed Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School, Maga, in Danko/Wasagu Local Government Area of Kebbi State around 4 a.m. on Monday, the assault followed a now-familiar script. By the time the gunfire subsided, 25 schoolgirls had been abducted, the school’s vice-principal, Hassan Yakubu Makuku, lay dead, and another staff member was injured.

But beyond the immediate tragedy, the Maga school attack fits into a widening pattern of coordinated bandit incursions spreading across the North-Wes, where rural communities remain exposed despite years of counter-insurgency operations.

This report examines why the Kebbi attack happened and what it reveals about the deepening crisis of school insecurity across northern Nigeria.

Maga an Easy Target

Danko/Wasagu shares boundaries and forest corridors with Zamfara and Niger states, areas where armed groups maintain entrenched camps and shifting hideouts.

Security analysts believe the attackers likely moved through the Kuyambana–Kamuku forest axis, a notorious route long used for raids, retreats, and ransom negotiations.

Residents said the assailants scaled the school’s fence undetected, taking advantage of the absence of perimeter lighting and limited night patrols.

“They knew the terrain, they knew when to strike,” one community source told our reporter. “There was no power, no local watch, and only few guards.”

Such weaknesses made the school an easy target in a region where bandits exploit every lapse in surveillance.

A Recurring Pattern of Pre-Dawn Raids

Across Kebbi, Zamfara, and Niger, school attacks now occur between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m., when vigilance is lowest and reinforcements are slow to respond.

The Maga raid fits this pattern.

The early-morning invasion allowed the attackers to move quickly, overpowering the school’s limited security before police reinforcements could arrive.

Security sources say the timing is deliberate: darkness conceals movement, creates confusion, and delays communication between distressed communities and nearby bases.

Why tactical units could not prevent the abduction

Although the police said tactical units had been deployed at the school, the attackers still succeeded in abducting 25 students. Security sources explained that such failures often stem from three recurring structural problems.

First, the bandits typically arrive in large numbers, sometimes between 50 and 200, easily overwhelming the small units usually posted to rural schools.

Second, they wield more powerful weapons, including GPMGs, AK-49 rifles and even RPGs, giving them a significant firepower advantage during confrontations.

Third, the attackers exploit their intimate knowledge of the surrounding forests, using terrain that security operatives are far less familiar with.

These factors combined to ensure that the brief gun duel between the police and the attackers was not enough to prevent the mass abduction.

A Region Under Repeated Stress

Maga and communities in Danko/Wasagu have suffered multiple killings, displacement, and cattle rustling incidents in recent months. Local leaders say the raids are retaliatory attacks against vigilante groups who have recently tightened control on the movement of suspicious individuals.

One village head in the area said his people now live “between fear and fatigue.”

“Every time they attack, we bury our dead, report to the police, and go back to the same risk,” he told this newspaper. “We can’t abandon our farms, but we also can’t protect ourselves.”

Implications: Another Blow to Girls’ Education

Kebbi is one of the northern states with relatively high female school attendance. This incident risks reversing progress.

Education officials fear a repeat of what followed the Jangebe and Kuriga kidnappings. Parents may withdraw daughters from rural boarding schools; teachers may request transfers out of insecurity-prone areas; and schools in rural LGAs may record sharp drops in enrolment.

The Critical Hours Ahead

Security experts say the next 48–72 hours are critical. Rapid pursuit operations often determine whether abductees remain within short-range forests or are taken deeper into bandit enclaves toward Zamfara.

The coming days will show whether the coordinated deployment of police, military, and vigilantes can prevent the Maga abduction from joining the long list of unresolved mass kidnappings.

Previous Attacks in Danko/Wasagu LGA

Danko/Wasagu Local Government Area has endured a steady escalation of insecurity over the past year, marked by repeated attacks on residents and farming communities.

In July, bandits launched separate raids on Bena and Waje, killing 11 people and forcing several families to flee their homes.

Two months later, in September, four farmers were abducted near Wasagu, with their captors demanding a N12 million ransom for their release.

The situation worsened in October when a local vigilante commander was ambushed and killed while responding to a distress call, a development that deepened fears among communities that rely heavily on volunteer security groups for protection.

Beyond these major incidents, residents say cattle rustling has become a weekly occurrence, with armed groups repeatedly raiding herding settlements and farmlands, often triggering violent confrontations.

Security officials have long warned that Danko/Wasagu’s vulnerability is linked to its location along forest corridors that connect Kebbi to Zamfara and Niger States—routes that remain largely unmonitored and allow armed groups to move, regroup and launch attacks with ease.

Timeline — School abductions in Nigeria (2014–2025)

Nigeria’s long cycle of school abductions began in April 2014, when Boko Haram militants seized 276 schoolgirls from Government Girls Secondary School, Chibok, in Borno State.

The incident drew global outrage, triggered the #BringBackOurGirls movement, and established a grim pattern that would later spread across the North-east and North-west.

Although dozens of the girls eventually escaped or were rescued, many remain unaccounted for more than a decade later.

Four years after Chibok, in February 2018, another major abduction occurred in Dapchi, Yobe State. A faction of Boko Haram stormed the Government Girls’ Technical College and abducted 110 girls. Most were released within a month under circumstances that raised questions about negotiations and military withdrawals, while five girls were reported killed during the ordeal.

By December 2020, the wave of school kidnappings had expanded into the North-west. In Katsina State, hundreds of boys were abducted from Government Science Secondary School, Kankara, after gunmen overran the school in a night-time attack. Although the students were later freed, the incident signalled a shift: bandit groups, not just insurgents, were now targeting schools for ransom.

Two months later, in February 2021, gunmen struck Government Science College, Kagara, in Niger State. They abducted 27 students along with staff and family members and killed one student during the assault. The attack coincided with growing insecurity in the Middle Belt, where criminal gangs and insurgent cells operated with increasing coordination.

Just days after Kagara, another brazen school abduction took place in Jangebe, Zamfara State. Heavily armed attackers raided Government Girls Secondary School, abducting about 279 students. The girls were released after negotiations, but the attack cemented Zamfara’s role as the epicentre of banditry and mass kidnappings.

Through 2021, 2022 and 2023, the North-west and parts of the North-central experienced repeated school-related raids. Many of these incidents involved smaller groups of students or targeted teachers and non-teaching staff. Nevertheless, the accumulative impact was severe: hundreds of rural schools either shut down or drastically reduced operations due to persistent threats.

In March 2024, one of the largest school abductions since Jangebe occurred in Kuriga, Chikun Local Government Area of Kaduna State. More than 200 pupils from both primary and secondary schools were seized in a morning attack that ignited national outrage. Several states across the region, including Sokoto, reported related mass kidnappings during the same period, prompting warnings from rights groups that Nigeria was experiencing the worst resurgence of school attacks since Chibok.

Across 2024 and into 2025, the pattern continued with sporadic but steady incidents of abductions, attempted raids, and school closures. Aid agencies estimated that more than 1,500 children had been kidnapped from schools nationwide since 2014, though figures varied depending on sources and periods covered.

The most recent attack occurred on 17 November 2025, when armed bandits invaded Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, Danko/Wasagu Local Government Area of Kebbi State. The attackers, who arrived around 4 a.m., killed the school’s vice-principal, Hassan Yakubu Makuku, wounded another staff member, and abducted 25 female students from their hostel. Police, military units and local vigilantes launched a coordinated search-and-rescue operation through surrounding forests and escape routes.

The Maga abduction reinforces the tragic persistence of mass school kidnappings in Nigeria. More than a decade after Chibok, the pattern remains deeply entrenched, with armed groups exploiting weak rural security, porous forest corridors and the vulnerability of public boarding schools.

The Bigger Picture

As security operatives continue search-and-rescue operations, the Maga abduction has once again exposed the fragility of rural education in northern Nigeria. Unless structural weaknesses in community policing, intelligence gathering and school protection are addressed, experts warn that schools in the North-West may continue to fall prey to armed groups who have made abductions a profitable industry.