Centrists lead far-right in Dutch election, exit polls show

Centrist party D66 came ahead by a thin margin, exit polls suggested. The vote would signal a weakening of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), which had come in first in the last election.

Initial exit polls in the Dutch election showed the centrist D66 party coming in first, slightly ahead of Geert Wilders' far-right Freedom Party (PVV), and opening a path for Rob Jetten to become the Netherlands' youngest prime minister.

The centrist D66 party was projected to win 27 seats out of 150 in parliament, ahead of Wilders PVV with 25 seats, according to the Ipsos poll.

PVV had faced fresh competition from two centrist parties, the Christian Democrats under new leader Henri Bontenbal, who promised stability and "traditional values," and from D66, led by Rob Jetten, who had gained ground with a message focused on housing and education.

The Netherlands' fragmented system ensures no single party will reach the 76-seat threshold to govern alone, meaning lengthy coalition talks are almost inevitable — and the country’s political direction still hangs in the balance.

Wilders appeared to admit that his party would not reach first place. "The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome but we stuck to our guns," Wilders wrote on X, following the exit polls.

Meanwhile, cheers and chants of "Yes, we can" broke out at the D66 election night celebration, with the crowd waving Dutch flags.

"Millions of Dutch people have turned the page today. They have said goodbye to the politics of negativity, of hate," Jetten told jubilant supporters. 

What was at stake in the Dutch election?

The vote was a major test for Dutch voters, to see if they would double down on Wilders' anti-immigration platform or steer back toward the political center after two years of unstable conservative rule. His previous coalition collapsed in June when he withdrew support over immigration policy disputes.

Wilders, who calls himself the "Dutch Trump," had campaigned on denying all asylum applications — a move that would breach EU treaties — and redirecting development aid toward domestic spending. "People are fed up with mass immigration and the change of culture," he told the AFP news agency.

Ahead of the vote, Wilders' chances of becoming prime minister appeared slim. All major parties, including the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and conservative Christian Democrats, have ruled out governing with him.

Nearly half of Dutch voters remained undecided as the vote neared, surveys showed, underscoring the political uncertainty.

Why was the Netherlands voting now?

Wilders triggered the election by withdrawing the PVV from a fragile four-party government after a dispute over immigration quotas and family reunification rules, a move that fractured the coalition and forced an early vote.

His performance in the European Union’s fifth-largest economy will be watched as a gauge of how far-right parties are reshaping European politics, with nationalist movements also topping polls in France, Germany, and Britain.

Edited by: Sean Sinico