Will US-Russia-Ukraine talks bring war to an end?

Ukraine, the US and Russia are set to hold their first-ever trilateral meeting to find ways to end the war.

Ukraine, the US and Russia are meeting in the United Arab Emirates for their first trilateral talks aimed at finding options for bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. Previously the sides had discussed peace proposals separately, holding bilateral meetings with US representatives. This is the first time they will sit at the same table. 

According to the US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, the agenda in the UAE will have two key tracks: security and economic issues. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he voiced optimism about the outcome of the talks.

Immediately after Davos, Witkoff traveled to Moscow with Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum,head of the US Federal Acquisition Service, which the procurement arm for US federal agencies. The trio met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his aides.

Following that meeting, Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said that "it was once again stated that without resolving the territorial issue according to the formula agreed in Anchorage, one should not expect to achieve a long-term settlement."

He didn't spell out what exactly this "formula" entails. After Moscow, the US delegation flew on to Abu Dhabi.

The Russian delegation, Ushakov said, includes senior officials from the defense ministry, led by Russia's military intelligence services chief Igor Kostyukov. Separate talks on economic matters are also planned in Abu Dhabi between Witkoff and Putin’s special representative Kirill Dmitriev.

Ukraine's delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. The team also includes the Ukrainian president's chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, deputy chief of staff Sergiy Kyslytsya, parliamentary majority leader Davyd Arakhamia, and Andrii Hnatov, chief of the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces. Military intelligence officials will be present as well.

The Donbas issue will be at the heart of the Abu Dhabi negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists via the messaging platform WhatsApp. According to him, Ukraine's European partners will receive a full briefing on the outcome of the talks later.

The Donbas issue refers to territory in eastern Ukraine, some of which is currently controlled by Russia. Russia has previously demanded that Ukraine gives up the parts of the Donbas it still controls. Ukraine has refused to do this.

What can US, Russia, Ukraine agree on?

The Russia-Ukraine meeting in Istanbul last summer failed to deliver progress toward peace, or even a ceasefire, but it did pave the way for a major prisoner exchange.

The upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi mediated by the US is also unlikely to start a full-fledged peace process, experts interviewed by DW say.

The talks are more likely to focus on a limited humanitarian track, says Ivan Us, chief adviser at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies. According to him, the new round of talks doesn't signal any shift in fundamental positions and is only linked to US President Donald Trump's wish to continue diplomatic efforts.

Us believes Ukraine won't agree to any scenarios involving territorial concessions or anything resembling de facto capitulation. Russia, for its part, is showing no readiness to end the war either, the expert said. "Under these circumstances, there is no point in talking about political breakthroughs or strategic agreements," Us said.

According to him, that explains why the sides are looking for an outcome that can be implemented quickly and without changing their core positions. "Such an outcome could be a prisoner exchange, which has not taken place for quite some time," he points out.

Us argues that Moscow may try to get the US to ease up on its shadow fleet — the fleet of tankers used to evade sanctions — and may agree to humanitarian activities, such as resuming prisoner exchanges.

As for the territorial issue, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko believes much will depend on the Americans and what kind of compromises they are able to offer regarding Donbas.

According to Fesenko, the director at the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv, the presence of military experts in the delegations suggests that issues such as troop disengagement and possibly a ceasefire will be discussed. "But whether they will reach an agreement? I’m not very optimistic," he said.

Targeting energy infrastructure 

British newspaper, the Financial Times, reported that Ukraine and the US may propose a ceasefire on targeting energy infrastructure.

According to Fesenko, the talks would be a success if they result in an agreement — or at least the launch of negotiations towards one — on halting strikes against energy infrastructure.

"At the same time, I have doubts that this can be agreed on," Fesenko said. "So far, I don’t see Putin ready to give up such an effective tool of pressure on Ukraine." In his view, talks are likely to continue but no quick breakthrough should be expected in the near future.

Oleksandr Kraiev. director of the North America program at the Kyiv-based think tank Prism, also believes the Abu Dhabi meeting will end without substantive agreements.

Kraiev argues that the main outcome may not be progress with Russia but closer coordination between Ukraine and the US.

"In effect, this is about moving toward a situation in which Kyiv and Washington act as one team, jointly trying to persuade Russia of the need for at least interim diplomatic solutions," Kraiev suggests.

This doesn't mark the start of a peace process, he argues; instead it's an attempt to test Moscow’s willingness for minimal constructive engagement.

This story was originally published in Ukrainain.