China's September exports blow past forecasts, imports accelerate
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BEIJING: China's export growth topped forecasts in September, with robust overseas demand helping offset weak consumer spending and easing pressure on policymakers to deliver this year's growth goal.
Resilience in goods exports has for a second year defied pressure from Western countries seeking more balanced trade with China, keeping factories humming and shoring up economic growth against subdued domestic demand and investment.
Exports in September soared 36.3 per cent from a year earlier, outstripping August's 25.0 per cent rise and far exceeding expectations for 25.5 per cent growth, customs data showed on Wednesday. September's growth was the fastest since February this year when exports expanded 39.6 per cent.
Imports jumped 31.0 per cent, compared with 28.2 per cent growth in August and economists' forecasts of a 24.5 per cent gain.
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China's trade surplus reached US$938.11 billion in the first nine months of the year, putting the manufacturing powerhouse on course to surpass US$1 trillion in surplus sooner than last year unless exports slow sharply in the final quarter. For now, such a slowdown appears unlikely.
A deal with the European Union to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc, announced earlier this month, is likely to weigh on China's booming auto trade over time. But with the trade measures likely being laid out in December, exporters may drive up shipments to beat the deadline.
President Xi Jinping's September summit with US President Donald Trump in Washington secured an extension to their tariff truce and an agreement to cut tariffs on US$30 billion worth of goods from each side.
With the global build-out of AI infrastructure showing little sign of slowing, analysts expect demand for Chinese-made technology products, including semiconductors, to remain robust.
China's factory-gate prices rose at their fastest pace in more than four years in September, separate data showed, while consumer inflation edged up but lagged forecasts, underscoring an uneven recovery.
The strength in exports, however, indicates that policymakers could still bank on moderate policy support to meet China's 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent annual GDP growth target.
The Canton Fair, China's largest trade exhibition, will kick off on Thursday for Chinese manufacturers to showcase their wide array of products to foreign buyers.
Going forward, risks of curbs on Chinese exports loom as China continues to defend its industrial and monetary policies, which Washington and Brussels blame for Beijing's massive trade surplus.
China's central bank last week pushed back against criticism of its exchange-rate policy with a lengthy policy statement, arguing that it never pursued competitive depreciation and rejecting claims that China keeps the yuan artificially weak to gain a trade advantage.
As exports now serve as a key growth engine, any major hit to the sector could in turn prompt policymakers to step up stimulus measures to address weak domestic demand and the years-long property market downturn.
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