Stocks dip, oil choppy as US-Iran peace deal remains elusive

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May 7 : U.S. and European stocks dipped and oil prices were volatile but ultimately little changed on Thursday after a report said Iran would not allow the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with "an unrealistic plan."

On Wall Street, major stock indexes pulled back slightly from the previous session's multiple records on strong chipmaker earnings. The S&P 500 fell 0.4 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5 per cent.

The United States and Iran were previously edging toward a limited and temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said on Thursday, with a draft framework that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved. In normal times, about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe's STOXX 600 finished 1.1 per cent lower, having jumped 2.2 per cent on Wednesday, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.6 per cent. Japan's Nikkei crossed 62,000 for the first time.

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'A GOOD DIRECTION'

While the Middle East situation was uncertain, "the momentum is going in a good direction," and markets had taken note of it, Lombard Odier chief economist Samy Chaar said.

"So the oil price is down from its highs, which is obviously relieving pressure on yield curves and bond yields, and that is great news for equity valuation and makes currencies move a bit," Chaar said. 

A strong earnings season and a relatively robust macroeconomic environment added to a positive market mood, Chaar added.

MSCI's All-Country World Index ticked down 0.1 per cent, holding around record highs. 

Brent crude fell about 0.7 per cent to $100.56 a barrel, having tumbled nearly 8 per cent on Wednesday.

Even after that slide, Brent is still around 40 per cent above its late-February level, when the war began, while 10-year Treasury yields have surged - a reminder of the strain higher energy costs continue to put on the global economy. Ten year U.S. Treasury yields rose by 3.4 basis points to 4.388 per cent.

"Certainly the clock is ticking towards a point ... when the pace at which oil inventory drawdowns at the current pace become unsustainable and energy prices jump materially," Investec market strategists wrote in a note on Thursday. 

Rocketing oil prices whacked global markets in March but a fragile ceasefire and prospect of a deal have spurred a risk-on rally since April that has been fueled by strong tech earnings reports. 

S&P COMPANIES SET FOR ROBUST PROFIT GROWTH

S&P 500 companies are on track for their strongest profit growth in more than four years, while blowout results from Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC have reinforced the upbeat tone in Asia.

"U.S. earnings confirm a broad-based profit boom - record EPS (earnings per share) beats, all-time-high margins and sharply upgraded '26 growth expectations," Manish Kabra, a market strategist with Societe Generale, wrote in a client note on Thursday.

Investors await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with jobs expected to have increased in April by 62,000 after rebounding 178,000 in March, a Reuters survey of economists shows.

In currency markets, the euro nudged up and last fetched $1.175. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six units, was flat.

The yen remained in the spotlight after spikes in recent sessions prompted market speculation that Japan had intervened to support the long-battered currency.

The yen ticked down 0.2 per cent at 156.66 per dollar, having hit a 10-week high of 155 on Wednesday.

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