Snap Insight: Philippine ex-president Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest takes Marcos-Duterte feud to a new level of chaos
In this “game of thrones” in Southeast Asia’s oldest democracy, warring houses have often resulted in political instability, economic ruin and democratic backsliding, says ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Aries A Arugay.
by Aries A Arugay · CNA · JoinRead a summary of this article on FAST.
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MANILA: So far, 2025 is proving to be a devastating year for the Duterte dynasty. From being a domineering and popular president in the Philippines’ contemporary history, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested on Tuesday (Mar 11) for alleged crimes against humanity.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has been investigating his violent crackdown against illegal drugs, a systematic and bloody purge which the ICC estimated resulted in the deaths of between 12,000 and 30,000 Filipinos residing in poor communities.
Duterte has defended the extra-judicial killings as necessary to reimpose law and order that received overall popular support. However, it was also the crowning glory of his massive attacks on democratic institutions and civil society groups who were critical of his illiberal and populist policies.
SURPRISE MOVE TO ENFORCE ICC WARRANT
Notably, Duterte had specifically ensured he would not be made accountable by the long arm of the international court. It was none other than Duterte who instigated the withdrawal of the Philippines as a state party to the Rome Statute that established the ICC.
The surprise came from how rapidly the case against Duterte – filed in 2018 – progressed based on previous ICC cases. Duterte’s scathing critique of the ICC as a Western-biased court aimed at undermining state sovereignty is a familiar tune espoused by revisionist states like Russia and China.
The Duterte dynasty, including current Vice President Sara Duterte, was also previously confident of its situation given President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr’s ironclad commitment to ensure that the court has no jurisdiction in the Philippines.
IMPEACHED AND ON THE DEFENSIVE
But in the span of two years, the assurance gradually dissipated as the political alliance between the country’s two most powerful dynasties crumbled. Sara Duterte was impeached in February on charges of plotting to assassinate the president, graft and corruption and violating the constitution, among other high crimes.
While the Dutertes remain popular and have maintained their political bailiwick in Mindanao, they have been on the defensive.
Her looming trial could result in her perpetual disqualification from public office. If she is deprived of running in the 2028 elections, the dynasty cannot regain the presidency.
POISED TO REPEAT TRAGIC HISTORY
Duterte’s political allies and supporters are now crying foul and accusing the state of grave abuse of its power.
The irony is that it is this same allegation that inspired the bloody war on drugs as it bypassed due process, undermined civil liberties and eroded the rule of law in the Philippines. When it takes an international court to push the cause of criminal accountability and human rights, it is a damning verdict of the integrity and quality of democracy.
This latest episode in the Marcos-Duterte war has added more evidence that the upcoming midterm elections in May will be defined by a polarisation between these two political clans.
It remains to be seen whether Duterte’s arrest will result in incarceration. He had registered to run for mayor of their family’s stronghold Davao City.
The last time a popular ex-president was detained was in 2001, when Joseph Estrada’s arrest led to a massive political protest that almost deposed the incumbent government. In this “game of thrones” in Southeast Asia’s oldest democracy, warring houses have often resulted in political instability, economic ruin and democratic backsliding.
Unless elites remain restrained and institutions are allowed to work, the Philippines is poised to repeat its tragic history all over again.
Dr Aries A Arugay is a Visiting Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Philippine Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He is also Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science, University of the Philippines-Diliman.
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