US Fed holds interest rates steady amid sharp divide over policy easing bias
"Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," it said.
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WASHINGTON: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday (Apr 29), but in its most divided decision since 1992 noted rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew three dissents from officials who no longer feel the US central bank should communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.
A fourth dissent at the meeting came in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut.
"Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices," the Fed said in its policy statement, a shift from previous language saying that inflation was just "somewhat" elevated".
"Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," it said.
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The 8-4 vote was the most divisive since Oct 6, 1992, and shows the breadth of opinion presumed incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face in pursuing rate cuts that President Donald Trump says he expects from his chosen successor to Jerome Powell, whose term as central bank chief ends on May 15.
Though the latest policy statement retained language about how the Fed would assess the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" to rates, a phrase that pointed to future cuts as the next likely move, three policymakers objected.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, while supportive of holding the policy rate steady in the current 3.50-3.75 per cent range, "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time" and voted against the new statement.
In a press conference held after the Fed meeting, Powell said "we are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks." He added, "monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis."
With global oil prices lodged above US$100 a barrel due to the US-backed war against Iran, the Fed has been hard-pressed to determine if the impact is likely to be seen more through depressed growth or higher inflation, keeping the policy rate in the range where it has been since December despite repeated demands by Trump for looser monetary policy.
Alongside elevated inflation, "the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months" while the economy continues to expand "at a solid pace", the Fed said.
Stocks on Wall Street remained in negative territory after the release of the statement. US Treasury yields rose. Futures markets were pricing in little chance of a Fed rate cut by the end of this year.
Omair Sharif, president of forecasting firm Inflation Insights, said in a note to clients that the fractious policy vote made some level of sense. "The new statement upgraded the concern on inflation," he said, adding that it is "not surprising" some officials didn't agree with the move to retain an easing bias given price pressure worries.
FED LEADERSHIP TRANSITION
The new statement is likely the last to be issued under Powell's leadership.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Republican-controlled Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Warsh's nomination on a party-line 13-11 vote. The Senate is expected to confirm Warsh next month.
Powell said he will stay on as a central bank governor for an undetermined period of time when his leadership term ends, amid hopes that ongoing political attacks on the institution will start to settle down.
“After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined,” Powell told a news conference after his last policy meeting as chair.
"I'm not looking to be ... a high-profile dissident or anything like that," the central bank chief said. Instead, Powell said he wants to see that the political climate that's led to unprecedented legal attacks on the central bank has "calmed down" and that the Fed can instead be more focused on its core mission.
But Powell has long infuriated Trump by ignoring commands to cut interest rates and the Republican president has been itching for him to step down.
"'Jerome "Too Late' Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't get a job anywhere else - Nobody wants him," Trump posted on his social media platform after Powell's announcement.
It is unusual but not unprecedented for a former chairman to stay on as governor.
Powell, who could stay until 2028, promised to "keep a low profile" under Warsh, Trump's pick for a new chairman.
But Trump's treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told Fox Business this was a "violation" of Fed norms and "an insult" to Warsh.
The minutes of the Fed's Mar 17-18 meeting noted a growing number of policymakers were open to the idea that the central bank's next move might be a rate increase, and the number of hawkish dissents may prompt investors to boost bets that borrowing costs will rise this year.
Since the March meeting, inflation has shown signs of rising, with officials concerned that sustained high global oil prices could evolve from a one-time price shock to a jump in underlying pressure on prices.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran, in what may also be his last meeting, again dissented in favour of a rate cut, having dissented in favour of easier policy at every meeting since moving to the central bank from his prior job as one of Trump's top economic advisers.
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