Bank of Japan hikes rate to 31-year high
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TOKYO: The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates on Tuesday (Jun 16) as it battles inflation caused by the Middle East war - even after Washington and Tehran agreed a peace deal.
The central bank for the world's fourth-largest economy raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1.0 per cent, the highest since 1995 and marking the first increase since December.
The widely expected decision followed rate rises by the European Central Bank and in Indonesia last week after the conflict caused economic havoc and rising prices worldwide.
With US inflation at a three-year high, expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve will follow suit, albeit not at new boss Kevin Warsh's first gathering this week.
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"While higher crude oil prices have been exerting downward pressure on economic activity, the economy has generally been supported by factors such as high levels of corporate profits and an improvement in the employment and income situation," the BoJ said.
The consumer price index (CPI) has been below 2 per cent thanks in part to government energy subsidies.
"However, the price pass-through stemming from the rise in crude oil prices has been progressing at a relatively fast pace in business-to-business transactions, which could spread to an increase in consumer prices across a wide range of items," the central bank added.
"Against this backdrop, taking into account that medium- to long-term inflation expectations have also continued to rise, there is a risk of underlying CPI inflation deviating upward to a level above the price stability target of 2 per cent."
Looking ahead, the BoJ said that it will "continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation".
"In this regard, it will consider the timing and pace of adjustment, while closely monitoring the impact of the future course of the situation in the Middle East on Japan's economic activity and prices," it said.
It also indicated that it would pause the tapering of its colossal programme of bond purchases after next April.
The BoJ's move is a "clear signal" that it will take care of inflation expectations going forward, and that it wants to normalise interest rates to a level where the yen can stabilise, said Fujitsu chief policy economist Martin Schulz.
"Inflation expectations have been going up again, and then investor confidence with very high bond yields going up to a level of almost 2.8 per cent for that 10-year bond - this hasn't been seen in a very long time," he told CNA's Asia Now.
"It shows that this is not only inflation expectations (or) some doubt about growth opportunities. It is also that confidence in government policy has been deteriorating.
"This is where the Bank of Japan now says: 'We have to to close that gap and follow up and show that the economy can grow, even though interest rates will be higher'," added Schulz.
US-IRAN DEAL
The United States and Iran agreed to end their three-month war on all fronts and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which pre-conflict about a fifth of world oil and gas passed.
The accord was set to be physically signed in Switzerland on Friday, but hundreds of ships remain stuck, and it will likely take considerable time for trade flows to normalise.
Japan relied on the Middle East for around 90 per cent of its crude supplies before the war began on Feb 28.
Its problems have been exacerbated by a falling yen, caused by the rise in oil prices and the gap between US and Japanese interest rates, which are among the lowest in the developed world.
The government spent around ¥11.7 trillion currency, which has been languishing at around 160 yen against the dollar.
The yen briefly jumped against the dollar after the announcement on Tuesday, while the Nikkei 225 stock index rose above 70,000 points for the first time.
BoJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida was slated to address the media on Tuesday afternoon after the rate decision, filling in for governor Kazuo Ueda, who is in hospital.
The central bank is under pressure from markets to keep tightening interest rates, and also from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government not to snuff out growth with high borrowing costs.
The BoJ began hiking rates from below zero in 2024 after nearly two decades of ultra-loose monetary policies.
Akino Fukuda at Moody's Analytics said Tuesday's move was "another step toward policy normalisation".
"Real rates remain negative, financial conditions are still relatively loose, and inflation pressures are turning higher, so more hikes are necessary," Fukuda said.
"The question now is the pace."
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