Why tensions are flaring again between Afghanistan and Pakistan
Pakistan carried out air strikes on Afghanistan's major cities, escalating months of border clashes.
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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan carried out air strikes on Afghanistan's major cities overnight, officials in Islamabad and Kabul said on Friday (Feb 27), escalating months of border clashes.
The air and ground strikes, which hit Taliban military posts, headquarters and ammunition depots in multiple sectors along the border, came after Afghanistan launched an attack on Pakistani border forces, the officials said.
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have plunged in recent months. Land border crossings have been largely shut since deadly fighting in October that killed more than 70 people on both sides, before a fragile ceasefire was put in place.
It was the worst fighting between the two countries since the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021.
WHY ARE THE NEIGHBOURS AT ODDS?
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Pakistan welcomed the return to power of the Taliban in 2021, with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan saying that Afghans had "broken the shackles of slavery".
But Islamabad soon found that the Taliban were not as cooperative as it had hoped.
Islamabad says that the leadership of militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and many of its fighters are based in Afghanistan, and that secular armed insurgents seeking independence for the southwestern province of Balochistan also use Afghanistan as a safe haven.
Militancy has increased every year since 2022, with attacks from the TTP and Baloch insurgents growing, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a global monitoring organisation.
Kabul, for its part, has repeatedly denied allowing militants to use Afghan territory to launch attacks in Pakistan.
Even as the fragile ceasefire has held, there have been repeated clashes and border closures that have disrupted trade and movement along the rugged frontier.
WHAT SPARKED SATURDAY’S OFFENSIVE?
The day before the strikes, Pakistani security sources said they had "irrefutable evidence" that militants were using Afghan soil to attack Pakistan.
The sources listed seven planned or successful attacks by militants since late 2024 that they said were connected to Afghanistan.
One attack last week that killed 11 security personnel and two civilians in Bajaur district was undertaken by an Afghan national, according to Pakistani security sources. This attack was claimed by the TTP.
WHO ARE THE PAKISTANI TALIBAN?
The TTP was formed in 2007 by several militant outfits active in northwest Pakistan. It is commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban.
The TTP has attacked markets, mosques, airports, military bases, police stations and also gained territory - mostly along the border with Afghanistan, but also deep inside Pakistan, including the Swat Valley.
The group was behind the 2012 attack on then schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai, who received the Nobel Peace Prize two years later.
They also fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against US-led forces in Afghanistan and hosted Afghan fighters in Pakistan. Pakistan has launched military operations against the TTP on its own soil with limited success, although an offensive that ended in 2016 drastically reduced attacks till a few years ago.
The Afghan Taliban, in turn, is widely believed to provide some assistance to the Pakistani Taliban.
"All evidence tells us that Afghanistan Taliban have supported the Pakistani Taliban, and they have allowed them to take residence inside Afghanistan, but they are also supported at the same time by al-Qaeda, which has swelled its numbers inside Afghanistan, under the patronage of the Afghan Taliban," Amin Saikal, an adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies of the Nanyang Technological University, told CNA.
"So I think unless the Afghan Taliban really gives up their support for the Pakistani Taliban, this conflict is likely to continue and could also escalate."
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Pakistan is likely to intensify its military campaign, analysts say, while Kabul's retaliation could come in the way of raids on border posts and more cross-border guerrilla attacks to target security forces.
On paper, there is a wide mismatch between the military capabilities of the two sides. At 172,000, the Taliban have less than a third of Pakistan's personnel.
The Taliban do possess at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, but their condition is unknown and they have no fighter jets or effective air force.
Pakistan's armed forces include more than 600,000 active personnel, have more than 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles and more than 400 combat aircraft, according to 2025 data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The country is also nuclear-armed.
Türkiye and Qatar may try to mediate again to restore the fragile ceasefire, said Dr Saikal.
"But I doubt ... that the ceasefire will work until such time that the Afghan Taliban give up their support for the Pakistani Taliban," he added.
"And that doesn't doesn't seem to be on the cards either, simply because the Afghan Taliban are worried that if they give up support for for the Pakistani Taliban, those Taliban may join the ISK, which is the Islamic State branch of Khorasan operating in Afghanistan since 2016 and and there is a strong rivalry between Afghanistan, or Afghan Taliban, and ISK."
What could complicate the situation is the Afghan Taliban's close relationship with India, said Dr Saikal. The Indian government has, in recent years, shifted to engaging with the Taliban, partly to prevent Afghanistan from re-emerging as a hub for militancy and terrorism that threatens India’s security.
"New Delhi has been supporting the Afghan Taliban, and that is a major threat as far as Pakistan is concerned, given the history of the conflict between Pakistan and India, and as a result, I think that Pakistan is very much determined now to bring the Taliban into line or under their influence," Dr Saikal said.
HOW HAS THE WORLD REACTED?
Iran, which shares borders with both Pakistan and Afghanistan, has offered to help facilitate dialogue.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran stands ready to provide any assistance necessary to facilitate dialogue and to enhance understanding and cooperation between the two countries," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X.
Russia has urged Afghanistan and Pakistan to halt cross-border attacks immediately and resolve their differences through diplomatic means, the RIA news agency reported, citing the foreign ministry.
China said on Friday that it was "deeply concerned" by the fighting, adding that Beijing was talking to the two sides as it called for a ceasefire.
China "calls on both sides to remain calm and exercise restraint ... achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible, and avoid further bloodshed", foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing.
"China has consistently mediated the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan through its own channels and is willing to continue playing a constructive role in easing tensions."
Pakistan is one of China's closest partners in the region, but Beijing also calls itself a "friendly neighbour" of Afghanistan.
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