As Iran And The US Stand Firm On Nuclear Red Lines, Who Will Step Back First?

After nearly two weeks of escalating rhetoric that nearly led to the collapse of diplomacy, Iran and the United States have agreed to resume nuclear talks -- this time in Rome.

Yet, as negotiators prepare to meet, both sides are digging in on their core demands, raising the stakes for what could be a decisive round of diplomacy.

The main stumbling block remains uranium enrichment.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, insists that Iran must halt all enrichment activities -- a demand US special envoy Steve Witkoff recently said was crucial “because enrichment enables weaponization.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced the point on May 21 when he told a Senate committee hearing that “any level of domestic enrichment is unacceptable and poses a direct threat.”

Iran, meanwhile, shows no sign of backing down.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dismissed US demands as “outrageous” and “nonsense,” and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has insisted that Iran will enrich uranium “with or without a deal.”

“We have never abandoned diplomacy. We are still assessing whether, on that date and at that location, useful and productive negotiations can be held or not,” Araqchi said on May 21, hours before Oman announced the next round of talks would be held in Rome on May 23.

Domestic Pressure Driving Demand

Despite this breakthrough, expectations remain low. Both parties have made clear that their fundamental positions have not shifted, and the atmosphere is charged with suspicion.

“I do not think nuclear talks with America will bring results. I do not know what will happen,” Khamenei said earlier this week.

Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, says the US demand for zero enrichment stems from the “prevailing perception” in Washington that the Islamic republic is at its weakest.

“So, the belief is that compromising on enrichment is a mistake and the United States has to at least try to get what it has always wanted,” Vaez told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

Domestic politics in both Washington and Tehran further complicate compromise.

In the United States, the Trump administration is under pressure from congressional hardliners to demand a total ban on enrichment -- over 200 Republican lawmakers recently sent a letter urging no concessions on this front.

Iran, meanwhile, faces internal pressure to defend what many see as a symbol of national pride.

“There are serious domestic constraints that inhibit the possibility of compromise on this fundamental issue,” Robert Einhorn, a former special adviser to the US State Department on nonproliferation, told Radio Farda.

“All Iranians across the political spectrum take great pride in the enrichment program,” he argued, adding that both Trump and Iran’s leadership were under pressure.

Vaez said it was not yet clear whether the Trump administration’s demand that Iran abandon enrichment was its bottom line or ideal outcome, but he speculated that it would be made clear in the next two or three weeks.

The Israeli Factor And Threat Of War

Reports earlier this year claimed that Trump pulled Israel back from launching strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in favor of diplomacy with Tehran. But the US president has warned that if negotiations collapse, the military option is very much on the table.

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CNN reported earlier this week that new US intelligence suggests Israel is actively preparing for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks fail.

US officials cite intercepted Israeli communications and military maneuvers as evidence that Israel is weighing its options. This looming threat adds urgency -- and peril -- to the Rome talks, as any military action could ignite a broader regional conflict.

Menashe Amir, a Middle East expert based in Israel, said the assessment in Israel is that negotiations will fail and Iran is too weak now to respond to any attack due to Israel having weakened Tehran’s regional network of armed groups and disrupted its missile production capabilities.

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“The view among Israeli analysts is that the best time to strike Iran is between now and the next few weeks,” Amir told Radio Farda.

He said it was not easy to say with certainty whether Israel would attack Iran without US permission, but insisted that the country “has both the capability and courage” to do so, especially since the Israeli Army “trains for this” regularly.

Iran’s two primary nuclear facilities are the underground enrichment plant at Natanz and the Fordow site, which is buried deep within a mountain. Some experts question whether even US weapons could reliably penetrate and fully disable these fortified sites.

But Amir appeared confident that the sites’ physical location would not be an obstacle for Israel. He said “there are methods” to destroy underground nuclear facilities but declined to elaborate, citing security restrictions.

Critics of military action say that, while it can destroy physical infrastructure, it will not be able to wipe out knowledge.

Araqchi has said Iran will “take special measures in defense of our nuclear facilities and materials” if international bodies fail to “take effective preventive measures” against Israeli threats.

Europe's Patience Wears Thin

Complicating matters is Iran’s strained relationship with Britain, France, and Germany. Collectively known as the E3, the European powers have threatened to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran if it fails to reach a deal with Washington.

Iran has warned the E3 against the move, with Araqchi calling it a “big mistake” that would have “consequences,” including potentially leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The “snapback” of UN sanctions is a provision under the 2015 nuclear deal which expires in October. The E3 has reportedly given Iran until the end of June to reach an agreement with the United States.

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The Islamic republic has significantly expanded its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from the 2015 accord during his first term in office and reimposed sanctions against Tehran.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention to develop a bomb.

But it is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels and far above the 3.67 percent limit under the 2015 deal.

While past US administrations struggled to rally domestic support for a nuclear deal with Iran, observers say Trump -- despite his polarizing style -- might face less resistance if he negotiates an agreement that includes strict conditions and monitoring.

Einhorn said congressional Republicans “have been inclined to support the policies of Trump,” adding that “any respectable deal negotiated” by the US president would also likely have Democratic support -- especially if it’s seen as tough and enforceable.