Analysis: Ukraine Forced To Saudi Talks With Fewer Cards Than Ever

Ukraine is a recalcitrant mule that's been smashed on the nose with a plank of wood.

This colorful image is a paraphrase of a telling remark this week by US special envoy Keith Kellogg summing up Washington's view of Ukraine's rocky road from the bust-up in the White House to new talks with US negotiators in Saudi Arabia.

Kellogg was discussing the US decision to pause military supplies to Ukraine and suspend intelligence cooperation. The aim, he said, was to compel Ukraine to join talks.

"The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a 2x4 across the nose," Kellogg said. "You got their attention."

In other words, Ukraine's biggest military backer has wielded a big stick to get its way, and it seems to have worked.

"The push is to get them to engage in diplomatic activities.... The bottom line is that it's a forcing function to get them to the table," Kellogg said at an event in Washington on March 6.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Riyadh on March 10 to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, followed by talks between Ukrainian and US delegations in Jeddah later in the week.

This view of the dynamic of the last few days, and where it now leaves Ukraine, was shared by one analyst who spoke to RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service on March 7.

"They decided to put pressure on the weakest party," said Yevhen Mahda, a Ukrainian political scientist and director of Kyiv's Institute of World Policy.

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"The United States is not just turning the world order upside down. They are demonstrating, you know, a kind of caricature of policy," Mahda said.

The bitterness in these words echoes that heard in comments made by Ukraine's ambassador to London, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, who this week accused the United States of "destroying" the rules-based international order.

Nevertheless, the presence of Ukrainian negotiators in Jeddah next week suggests officials in Kyiv have accepted they have -- right now -- few options. Or, as US President Donald Trump put it, few cards.

Zelenskyy's tone of contrition in recent days also speaks to this.

"Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable," he tweeted on March 4. "I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership."

Kellogg was sitting right behind US Vice President JD Vance and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio when the Oval Office meeting blew up. "I had a ringside seat," he said, adding that Zelenskyy "misread the room."

"You don't try to challenge the president of the United States in the Oval Office."

While Kellogg's mule quote made some headlines, his other comments offer further insight into how Washington wants things to go from here.

A key first step will be to sign the minerals deal that was supposed to be signed in Washington.

"That is a big deal for us because President Trump is a transactional leader, and transactional starts with economics," he said.

Kellogg suggested -- in broad brush rather than in detail -- that this would be followed by Ukrainian officials setting out their "term sheet" of basic positions. He said Russia had already done this.

"Do we have a term sheet from the Russians broadly? Do we have a term sheet with the Ukrainians? The answer is yes and no."

Mahda, the Ukrainian analyst, complained that Trump was not putting any kind of pressure at all on Russia, "despite the fact that Ukraine is fighting a war for its independence."

On March 7, Trump took to Truth Social to wave some kind of stick at Russia, too.

"I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED," he wrote.

"To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late," he added.

This framing of the situation as two sides with equal status is clearly painful for Ukrainians. But Zelenskyy's attempt to persuade Trump that his country, as the victim of aggression, has a moral case for support appears to have fallen on deaf ears.

Kellogg said that, instead of acting as Ukraine's ally, Washington would play "an objective interlocutor role."

The fear in Kyiv and many other European capitals is that Washington is not even going to do this -- rather, that it sees its own interests as aligned with Moscow's. This perception has driven European efforts this week to bolster its own defense capabilities.

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Zelenskyy appeared genuinely moved by European expressions of support and solidarity at meetings in London and Brussels in recent days. Alongside the now traditional mantra of sticking with Ukraine for as long as it takes, there were announcements that British and French intelligence would try to fill the gap left by the Americans.

But the reality is that this is second-best assistance. It can help Ukraine hold the line for a time, but it cannot quickly replace the kind of US backing Ukraine has had until now.

"We have to understand that European equivalents of (US-made) Patriot missiles…won't come quickly, by waving a magic wand," said Mahda.